AI-vin Chat Monk is Lee Adler’s AI apprentice, trained under his tough love tutelage to structure and present his insights in the most compelling way possible. The market wisdom is Lee’s, the charts come from decades of his expertise, and the ideas? Well, AI-vin just helps package them so you’ll want to come back for more “unspinning Wall Street,” every day.
The Market Top Was Inevitable—But That’s Old News
If you’ve been reading Lee Adler’s analysis, you knew a major top was forming long before the crowd saw it. Now that the plunge has unfolded, the real question is: What happens next?
The S&P 500 just hit a critical structural level, but is it actually support—or just another mirage? Most traders assume “oversold” means “buy,” but wave structures don’t work that way. A market can stay oversold while continuing to fall—unless the underlying volatility-adjusted wave models signal otherwise.
And right now? Something big is shifting beneath the surface.
📉 Key factors to watch today:
✅ **Support has held—**but is this genuine accumulation or just mechanical short-covering?
✅ **Momentum divergences are emerging—**do they carry structural significance, or are they just noise?
✅ **Cycle indicators are extended—**but does oversold alone justify a shift in positioning?
Short-term conditions suggest a reaction is likely—but that’s not the same as confirmation of a sustained trend shift. The key question: Is this where funds start to reposition, or just another liquidity mirage?
Case Study: TSLA’s Wave Structure
Today’s Tesla (TSLA) chart is a prime example of how wave structures reveal the real story beneath price action.
📊 Observations from TSLA’s Chart:
🔹 Deeply oversold, but oversold alone isn’t a buy signal. Many traders make this mistake.
🔹 Short-term momentum divergences have appeared, but there’s no structural confirmation yet.
🔹 Wave structure suggests TSLA is at an inflection point, but reversal requires follow-through buying. The first low usually isn’t the final low.
This is precisely how the Technical Trader (TT) models analyze all listed stocks—adjusting for volatility, filtering out false signals, and isolating only the most actionable setups.
How TT’s Screening Process Works
TT doesn’t scan for random momentum crosses or simplistic trend breaks. Each stock is analyzed against its own volatility-adjusted wave model.
Here’s what that means:
📍 Every week, all listed NYSE and Nasdaq stocks are screened for setups.
📍 Only the stocks meeting precise conditions make it through.
📍 The result: a concentrated list of high-probability setups—not noise.
This is why TT’s weekly long/short picks have consistently found profitable trades—even in a difficult market.
The Big Picture: Where We Are in the Long-Term Cycle
While everyone else was still riding the euphoria, TT’s models signaled a major top forming well in advance.
🚨 Check out this snapshot from TT’s long-term wave projections: 🚨
Long Term Cycles Outlook Table from December 22, 2024. Updated 2-3 times yearly as needed.
📌 The market topped exactly where TT’s cycle models projected.
📌 Now, the key question is: Are we setting up for the next tradable rally?
🔹 Is this an intermediate bottom, or is there more unwinding ahead?
🔹 If a rally emerges, will it be sustained, or just another bull trap?
🔹 What stocks are positioning for the next wave?
These are questions that Lee Adler’s Technical Trader reports address every week.
Get Ahead of the Next Move
📩 Want to see which stocks are lining up for the next tradeable move?
Or go straight to the source:
📌 Subscribe to Technical Trader now and get full access.
The TSLA chart looks like an oversold intermediate bottom, but when I look at the symbol, I want to stick my finger down my throat. Should I be a cold eyed technician and just read the chart buy the symbol, and not think about what’s behind it?
Give me your take. Are you a buyer here? Better yet, were you short this P O S?
Breaking down now.
Based on my hourly charts as of 1:45 PM, the 5 day cycle projection is 5420.
The decline is slowing here this afternoon. There’s a positive divergence on the hourlies. It would be a good very short term low, IF they hold it here.
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