Go, Go, Twilio!

Tim Knight February 18, 2022

One of my greatest short ideas ever, and one in which I enjoyed maybe 10% of the profits I should have. Ya dummy!

Oh, and unrelated, here’s your Chamath update…….

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Primary Dealer Inventory Cutbacks Signal System Stress Ahead of Debt Ceiling Resolution

Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.

Gold Climbs Parabola Hill One More TIme 5/21/25

A massive increase in volatility has repeatedly broken historically normal wave bandwidths, signaling abnormal wave amplitudes as the trend goes parabolic. Trend support around 3295-3300 was seen as critical in the short run. It broke, and then whipsawed. The uptrend is thus still intact. A test of the high looks likely, with more fireworks through the summer. But longer term projections suggest that there’s little upside remaining.

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Selections and Performance – Five Shorts, Three Longs: Signals Sharpen After the Whiplash

This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to look more normal. This week, I found five shorts I liked and 3 longs. This is still cycle-based with rigorous questioning of setups, while finding more that I’m comfortable adding to the list.

Cycle Model Provides Top Signal Requirements in Face of Persistent Meltup

The market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break trend. Otherwise, the index remains on course for potential exhaustion targets above xxxx—even as the Cycle Wave Composite and long-term structures warn that this remains a topping process.

Synthetic Liquidity, Structural Risk 5/17/25

The current Macro Liquidity Report lays out the mechanics behind the current rally and the conditions that will reverse it. T-bill paydowns have injected over…

Go, Go, Twilio!

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