Occam’s Channels

Tim Knight November 9, 2021

This seems to me the logical direction in the weeks ahead.

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The Crash Setup Was Published. We’re In It. April 5, 2025

This isn’t a recap. The breakdown is still unfolding—and everything I’ve done this year has pointed to it. The March 31 Technical Trader laid out…

Federal Revenues – Real Time Data Downshifts, Liquidity Cliff Still on Track

Subscribers, click here to download the report. Withholding tax collections through April 2 decelerated versus recent months. This marks the expected cyclical downstroke, due to…

The House Is Breaking: How Primary Dealers Triggered the Crash Unfolding Now

Wall Street tracked sentiment and flows. Liquidity Trader tracked the dealers—those who make the market. And the cracks are visible.

Primary Dealer leverage has broken above 120% of Treasury and MBS holdings. Dealers are long, underhedged, and overexposed. This isn’t theory—it’s systemic risk starting to unwind. The crash isn’t coming. It’s already here.

Read the full report to see how this was predicted and what comes next.
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Primary Dealer Risk Profile: Why the Fuse Is Already Lit

Subscribers, click here to download the report. The April 3 report is now live, with a full breakdown of dealer positioning, leverage extremes, and why…

Whipsaw Warning: Technical Trader Repositions for First Leg of New Bear Market

March swing trades still closed with a +6% average gain, but last week’s failure triggered a full reset. Two new shorts survived the screen. This…

Occam’s Channels

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