Record Wealth in the Post-Covid World… for the select few

Constantin Gurdgiev May 7, 2021

Demolishing American middle class… one year at a time

Last Chance for Gold Romance 5/30/25

Top formation is due xxxx xxxxxx on short-term cycles. The intermediate uptrend is still intact, and will remain so provided that a pullback holds above xxxx. More fireworks look likely through the summer, with a xxxxxx xxxxx high expected in the xxxx xxxxx time frame. 4 mining picks added to the chart pick list last week got off to a good start.

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Selections and Performance – Beating Taco Tariff Whack a Mole

The markets are playing Tariff Whack a Mole while the cycle model runs in the background, drowned out by all the market noise. The markets are thin, and the tariff news pops up randomly and repeatedly to move prices a long way in an instant.

Primary Dealer Leverage and Hedging: 124% Leverage, Net Exposure Flat

Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.

Cycle Model Sell Signals Indicate Market Turning Point

Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.

Primary Dealer Inventory Cutbacks Signal System Stress Ahead of Debt Ceiling Resolution

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.

Record Wealth in the Post-Covid World… for the select few

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