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My USD vs. gold thoughts for viper

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#1 Yogibear101


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Posted 11 December 2008 - 01:22 PM

....pasted from my own forum which will remain unlinked. I''m clipping others replies and comments to save space.

Posted: 01 Dec 2008 10:11 pm Post subject: Goldbugs WORST nightmare

$USD daily chart saying it needs a new high, or a lower high as soon as this week, maybe next. Looks like a short time frame wave 4 consolidation at highs. Next move up could be bull trap, but there are higher targets in play. Some sh*t hitting the fan overseas may cause the dollar to rocket rather than crash. This makes gold a particularly bad investment.

Posted: 02 Dec 2008 09:36 pm Post subject: Goldbugs WORST nightmare
...the US dollar goes down and so does gold. This revolutionary idea brought to you by my twisted mind thinking like a criminal. I want opinions.

Posted: 02 Dec 2008 10:18 pm
...let''s assume the dollar enters the wave 4 retrace on short term, but a wave 2 longer term. If we recognize this as a potential corrective decline in a longer term change of trend, then the correct posture would be short gold. Momo on the dollar weekly is changing to down, but the dollar hasn''t reached it''s daily price objective. So something is about to happen, but we don''t know exactly what. Bonds overshot their target.

Thinking like a criminal would lead me to believe we will soon witness some extreme whipsaws to shake both the dollar and gold.

02 Dec 2008 11:42 pm

I''m saying the wave 4 would be a fakeout for goldbugs to buy. The wave 5 to a new high would F them over near term. The wave 2 longer term or weekly would lead more goldbugs to slaughter once it''s underway because their theories and strategies would be to buy. The gold would continue to go down and be bought rather than sold. As soon as wave 2 completes in the dollar, it should enter another rocket ride up to 1.618X or more of wave 1 which effectively traps anyone owning gold FOREVER...or 20-30 years.

The magic calculator puts the minimum USD wave 3 target at 107.124 given a retrace to 78 as wave 2.

02 Dec 2008 11:57 pm

I have a feeling the wave 5 short term may be a "failed 5th" this month due to whatever the FOMC does on the 16th. The longer term wave 2 could be quick after that, or last a couple months. It has to be a period shorter than the wave one, and we can count those weeks following the top of the 5th on daily.

Or I could be totally off base and full of sh*t.

Posted: 03 Dec 2008 12:01 am

...and don''t get the idea I''m an elliot trader, I just know that the idiots who are will be looking at the pattern the same way. If enough of the f''ers believe, then they will actually make it happen that way.

Posted: 03 Dec 2008 02:40 pm
...tell her you hurt all over and need a massage.

Concentrate on whatevers swollen.

03 Dec 2008 02:56 pm
...lemme think about that a second. Yields held down on what? 20 trillion in debt by the time we''re done? No way to increase taxes in a massive deflationary depression? Huge losses of taxable income and corporate profits while the treasury is emptied by tax refunds on restatements? Government workers laid off with a change of control in the administration? Obama''s infrastructure new deal part 2 costing hundreds of billions? Defense spending cut off like Russia in the 90''s?

Yep, the fed can buy all kinds of bonds, especially from the chinese and japanese who''ll be suicidal.

"All a real man needs is his QQQ and toiletries".......circa 2001 by Full Of Bull, ex-member Prudent Bear Chat.

#2 Yogibear101


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Posted 11 December 2008 - 01:31 PM


Note potential for both support or a break of the 50dsma and 200dsma lines up under 78.

"All a real man needs is his QQQ and toiletries".......circa 2001 by Full Of Bull, ex-member Prudent Bear Chat.

#3 viperbear


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Posted 11 December 2008 - 02:00 PM

Thanks Yogi, I appreciate it....nm

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