Tag Archive for Trend Changes

Unemployment Claims Like Barbecue- Lower But Slower

While the mainstream media was reporting that jobless claims were steady last week, the real picture was more nuanced. The media reports only the seasonally smoothed  number, which can obscure what’s really going on and is often late in recognizing trend changes because of the inherent smoothing. I liken it to Impressionist Art. It’s an…

Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome

With the mainstream media reporting the seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims down by 6,000 it’s time for a reminder that this number is fake, and may or may not give an accurate representation of the trend. If it does, it’s purely a coincidence. Economists and financial journos are in love with the seasonally manipulated…