May 2, 2011
Here is an combined perspective on three market valuation indicators I routinely follow: The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (mo…
April 29, 2011
The March Personal Income and Outlays report was published today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The chart below shows the monthly year-over year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. I’ve a…
I have been wanting to discuss a horrifically misleading article for a week now: Americans Shun Cheapest Homes in 40 Years as Ownership Fades.
It is an object lesson in how an industry spokesgroup, engaging in biased analysis, used poor econometric…
Market Watch link
Excerpt:
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Moody’s Investors Service cut Greece’s sovereign debt rating Monday by three notches, to B1, infuriating the Greek government and sideswiping the euro amid renewed worries about the ability of G…
Quoting Moody’s for anything other than advice on how to stay out of jail is probably a bad idea. Who cares if house prices have gone from 24 months pay to 19 months pay? If disposable income has shrunk and if you have less than 100% confidence that yo…
Many market watchers pay close attention to the Q Ratio. This piece, on the SeekingAlpha website, notes that the current Q Ratio level could mark a market top. Here are the first and last paragraphs of the piece, followed by the link…
The Q Ratio …
Thoughts ahead of Q3 GDP
Friday’s Q3 GDP numbers, writes The Automatic Earth blog (TAE) and CMI’s DShort (Consumer Metrics Institute), are not all that important. The “real” data won’t be known until well after the November 3 mid-term elections,…
