Tag Archive for Interest Rate Policy

Good News for Gold Prices: Commodities are Wounded, But Far From Dead

Greece is frozen in a political stalemate. Youth unemployment is running at over 50%. And there has been a $1 billion run on Greek banks.

From near and afar, there appears to be no easy way out, especially now that the Eurozone is heading back into a recession.

It’s times like these when investors pour into the U.S. dollar for its “perceived safety.”

With commodities priced in U.S. dollars, this spike in the greenback has sent commodities-including gold prices-into a tailspin since early March.

That has many doubters asking: “Has the commodities super-cycle ended?”

It’s a reasonable question considering the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is back down to levels it last saw in September 2010.

What’s more, gold prices have backed off to near $1,500/oz., and oil prices have fallen from $110 to $90/barrel.

But as you’ll see, the commodities coin does have another side.

The Other Side of the Commodities Story

In fact, a recent article by Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, pointed out how China and other emerging nations are in better fiscal shape than much of the West.

Even if China is slowing somewhat, it is still growing at an enviable 8% per year, with only 42% debt to GDP ratio. So rather than go for more outright stimulus, it’s expected that China will target new loan growth and its M2-money supply growth to around 14%.

Meanwhile, India and Australia have just lowered interest rates while other central banks are basically refusing to raise rates.

It means the world will keep turning, people will keep consuming and annual demand of raw materials is likely to remain elevated.

As for gold prices, let’s cut right to the chase.

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Mutual fund outflows are another example of the costs of ZIRP – Bernankecide

This is a short excerpt from this week’s Professional Edition Fed Report to be posted Tuesday. The ICI reports mutual fund inflows weekly with a one week lag. Domestic equity mutual funds had $8.7 billion of net outflows in the week ended 4/18/12, after net outflows of $1.5 billion the week before. Based on the…

David Stockman’s Takedown of Private Equity

David Stockman gave his insights on Mitt, Newt, crony capitalism, and the private equity controversy this week on Dylan Ratigan’s MSNBC show. He laid the blame for the current mess not just on cronyism and corruption, but particularly on the zero interest rate policy of the Fed. No one tells this story better or more…