This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street…
This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street…
This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street…
Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s recent success in talking the yen lower against other currencies has increased fears over “currency wars.” Now investors are on the hunt for the best investments to profit from central bankers’ “race to the bottom” in 2013.
As we’ve pointed out, the Japanese have done nothing overt to weaken the yen – yet. Markets were massively long the Japanese currency and, when Prime Minister Abe called for “unlimited easing” during the election campaign last year and in the run-up to selecting a new Bank of Japan governor, that was all traders needed to hear to begin selling their yen long bets and taking out short positions.
Abe’s great success was in getting the market to do all of the heavy lifting for him.
In fact, Abe has been a little too successful. Minister of Finance Taro Aso told reporters in Tokyo on Friday that the yen had weakened too quickly, which prompted an immediate reversal in the currency markets.
Aso’s comments came after remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Thursday raising concerns that the recent strength of the euro might derail the recovery just gathering momentum in Europe now.
Looking at the interplay of comments from Draghi and Aso last week, it is tempting to think that all of this commotion in the currency markets is being coordinated at the highest level of central banking.
But, with the exception of China, which has been quietly pushing the renminbi toward the lower end of its trading range, no one has done anything. It’s all just talk.
In the financial markets, however, talk is a big industry. Talk gets people to put on trades and that is how bankers and brokers make money.
This leaves investors wondering the best currencies to invest in to profit from these fluctuating values, which is why Morgan Stanley developed a currency war basket trade.
