Retail Sales

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Booming Retail Sales Hide A Terrible Problem – The Endgame

Real Retail Sales Per Capita- Click to enlarge

Actual, nominal retail sales grew at the robust annual rate of 4.8% after posting the best April performance since 2009. But there’s a problem with that. Forget the seasonally adjusted headline number of a gain of 0.1% which missed conomists’ expectations of a 0.3% gain. Seasonally adjusted data is fiction designed for mass consumption. It is an excuse…

Retail Sales Not As Bad As They Said, On the Other Hand, They Were Worse

Retail Sales Look Good - Click to enlarge

On the surface, the January retail sales report released on February 13 doesn’t look so bad, in spite of the hysterical headlines about the big “miss” because of January’s bad weather. Street economists had a consensus guess that the seasonally adjusted headline number would be unchanged from December. Instead the number dropped by -0.4%. The…

Retail Sales In December Were Actually Worse Than the Headline Number

Retail sales for December rose 0.2% according to the headlines, beating the market consensus of a flat month. As usual, the headline number was a seasonally adjusted, made up number, also not adjusted for inflation. The mainstream media noted the solid gain, but worried about the inventory buildup. However, the actual numbers, not seasonally finagled,…

CPI, Jobs, Hourly Earnings, Real Retail Sales Show QE/ZIRP Massive Failure

The headline Consumer Price Index for November was 0%, which was below the consensus guess of economists of 0.1%. Since the onset of QE3 and 4 in November 2o12, CPI has trended from an annual rate of 2% to now 1%. With the latest CPI data now posted, it’s an opportune time to go back…

Econ Chart Update- Initial Claims, Retail Sales, and Job Openings – All Bad News

First time unemployment claims had their worst performance last week since 2009. Actual, not seasonally adjusted claims were up 7.5% versus the same week last year. That’s outside the normal range. Is it a calendar anomaly? Even though the seasonally adjusted headline number was worse than the consensus expectation, the pundits were sanguine. I’m not…

Strong Retail Sales Another Reason For Fed To Taper

Retail sales rose in August, continuing their uptrend. The trend is gradually slowing, but the numbers are still quite robust. This is based on the actual data, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) and adjusted for CPI inflation. Unlike the headline data, this the actual unit volume of retail sales (see Note at end). Retail sales are growing…

Retail Sales Stronger Than Headline Numbers Showed Could Be Bad News For Stocks

Retail sales were sharply higher in July, contrary to media reports featuring the headline seasonally adjusted data. That data was misleading, due to the vagaries of seasonal adjustment methodology. We’ve had the discussion of the problems with seasonally adjusted data many times. The focus of this post is on the actual data, adjusted for CPI…