Indicator patterns in all time frames seem to be becoming increasingly ambiguous. However, with short term cycles due for up phases, if they fail to turn up that would suggest that the longer term cycles are weakening, consistent with the 10-12 month cycle topping out.
The market’s stutter step decline when short term cycles should be entering an up phase could be a sign of bigger underlying weakness. Time is running short for this thing to gain price traction.
The market ran into a line of resistance and pulled back. Broad market indicators were mixed and inconclusive but cycle screening measures continued to build on strength.
The market lifted off from support trendlines in an apparent 4 week and 6-7 week cycle upturn. Here’s what the data says about intermediate and longer term cycles.
While all cycles up to 10-12 months are technically in gear in down phases, the market has shown little sign of giving ground. Lows are overdue on the 4 week and 6 month cycles and only the 4 week cycle projection is slightly below levels that have already been reached. Liquidity should now be bullish…
The market selloff looked ugly, but cycle screening measures are either lagging badly or signaling that this weakness won’t be sustained. That’s like saying the market will either go up or down, but I’m leaning toward door number two, that the market isn’t as weak as it looked on Friday. Once Monday’s big Treasury settlement…
V shaped bottoms have become the rule rather than the exception in this HFT bot driven market. The algorithms all see the same thing at the same time and, badda bing badda boom, off we go. The 10-12 month cycle top could be a long drawn out affair. This report looks at what shape it’s…
The market found its footing on Wednesday, establishing that the 1350-60 area is now support. Resistance is now indicated immediately overhead. That could lead to development of a short term trading range. But what about after that?
10-12 month cycle indicators have now edged to the sell side, portending a down phase lasting 4 to 6 months. It’s too early to estimate the shape of the down phase, but there will be clues over the next few days.
Cycle screening data has now been updated. The Aggregate Differential indicator has reached an oversold level where it usually bottoms.