Liquidity Trader – US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Light Treasury Supply and Money Printing ContinueTo Keep Markets Bid

The US Treasury continues to reduce. Light net new supply met Fed MBS purchase settlements last week, helping to keep a bid under both stocks and bonds. Meanwhile banks have been selling or redeeming Treasuries, boosting their cash levels after the big Treasury paydowns in June. The message the data is sending remains consistent with…

Light Treasury Supply is Boosting Liquidity Available For “Risk Back On” Trade

The US Treasury continues to reduce supply. Light net new supply meets Fed MBS purchase settlements this week. Meanwhile banks have been selling or redeeming Treasuries, boosting their cash levels after the big Treasury paydowns in June. Primary Dealers are steadily reducing bond positions and Foreign Central Banks have converted some of their Treasury holdings…

Status Quo for Treasury Yields and Dollar Index

The outlooks for Treasury Yields and the dollar still call for higher highs. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds,…

What Has Changed For The Last Ponzi Game Standing?

Treasury supply will increase at the end of the month, but has been very light over the past week, with big paydowns. In addition, the Fed added cash to dealer trading accounts as it held its regular mid month MBS purchase settlements. These flows helped to put a bid into the Treasury market, at least…

Treasury and Fed Inundating Markets With Cash This Week

The Fed and Treasury are injecting $115 billion in cash into the markets over this 10 day period with a combination of Fed MBS purchase settlements, and Treasury debt paydowns. That will make it tough for stock and bond bears to see their expectations met in the short run. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity…

Treasury Yield Forms Massive Potential Base Pattern

The recent surge in the 10 year yield has reconfirmed the uptrend that began off the February low. The top of an 8 month wide reverse head and shoulders pattern that could be the base for a big move higher is at 2.40. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in…

Treasury Yields Break Key Trendline While Dollar Marks Time

Bonds yields have broken a 17 month downtrend. The dollar has become rangebound while its long term uptrend remains in force. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…

Treasury Market Keeps On Ticking On Supply Hit While Stocks Felt Their Pain

The Treasury market rallied a bit over the last week. It was helped by light supply in previous weeks, with paydowns adding cash to investor accounts, but that changed late last week. The new supply auctioned over that week began to settle on Friday with more settlements coming Monday. That was a depressant late in…

Do Central Banks Trade The Charts?

Bonds have rallied over the past 2 weeks and the dollar reversed much of its previous selloff. The long term downtrend in bond yields still has not been broken. Nor has the recent major uptrend in the dollar. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates,…

“Enjoy” the Treasury Rally While You Can

The Treasury market rallied a bit over the last week as supply was light. None of the major sources of demand were actively buying. That’s partly because there was no supply. It’s the old story of the chicken and the egg. Buyers will need to step up around this coming weekend however, since a huge…