Liquidity Trader – US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Setup For A Hangover- Treasuries and/or Stocks

The Treasury settles $36 billion in new note supply on Monday, wrapping up 2 days where it settled a total of $100 billion in net new paper. That was the climax to a month where it raised and settled $310 billion in new supply. And yet, the markets did not crack. So what should we…

Markets Absorb Massive Crush of Supply With Barely a Shiver–What’s It Mean?

As we return to regular weekly reporting, the Treasury’s schedule has returned to something resembling normalcy. The huge post debt ceiling deal supply surge is in the process of being put to bed. The week ahead should be the last where supply is way above normal. It will be “interesting” to see how the market…

Bond Selling and Dollar Buying Put Fed in Double Bind of Biblical Proportions

I have warned for the past several weeks that when the Federal Government started to claw back all the cash that it pumped into the markets while paying down debt since September to avoid going above the debt limit, that the surge of Treasury supply would send yields soaring. But the dollar is also soaring.…

Updated – Watch Out- Here Comes The Deluge

Portions of this report were updated Sunday, November 8.  Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money.…

As Usual Blame Will Be Misdirected as Yields and Dollar Go Boing Boing

The 10 year yield turned up and the dollar rallied last week. We’re going to hear a loud and clear claim for the blame. As usual, it will be wrong. And that will lead to more serial, cumulative misunderstanding of cause and effect. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in…

Updated – All That Cash – Gone With The November Wind

The problem we have been anticipating is here. The debt ceiling deal is done and the Treasury is clawing back the $140 billion it had poured into dealer and investor accounts since mid September. That cash reversed the normal October supply/demand balance. It drove the stock market rally. Now the Treasury needs to get that…

The Most Important News Today – Treasury announces 69-Day Bill- The Clawback Begins

This is even more important than the FOMC announcement. Now that the debt limit deal is all but signed, sealed, and delivered, the Treasury will begin to claw back some of the $140 billion in cash it paid to dealers and other investors who held expiring 4 week bills, and maturing 2 year notes that were not rolled over since September 15,

Updated and Corrected – Treasury Market New York Subway Rat Race

Two year Treasury note holders will be getting $32 billion in cash back next week. Like voracious New York subway rats scavenging for slices of pizza, they and they and a few piggyback riding momo players all went scurrying around trying to find replacement paper. These Wall Street rodents were looking for places to stash all that cold cash until the debt ceiling problem goes away. So both bonds and stocks rallied.

Updated- Treasury Paydowns and Fed Purchases Stoke Rallies But All “Good” Things Must Come To An End

The Treasury continues to pay down Treasury bills to avoid going over the debt ceiling. This week it paid down $38 billion in T-bills outstanding against net new coupon issuance of $26 billion. That put a net of $12 billion back into dealer and other investor accounts. This is unusual for mid October when the Treasury normally would be pounding the market with supply, depressing prices.

10 Year Treasury and US Dollar Technical Outlook

Bonds rallied and the dollar sank this week. While some projections point lower in the short run, by no means is that carved in stone. Here are the benchmarks to watch and the keys on what to expect next. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money…