Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Blow Out Withholding Tax Collections

Note: This report was originally posted in the wrong category on Wednesday. It is part of the Federal Revenues Pro Trader Service, not the Macro Liquidity service. I apologize for the error! Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through…

Tax Data for January Again Shows A No Growth US Economy

Federal withholding tax collections were up strongly in January, but that abruptly reversed over the past couple of days. Other tax data for January showed a weakening US economy. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So…

Beware The Jobs Data- Employers Are Usually Last To Get The News

Relative strength in withholding tax collections tended to support the growth in nonfarm payrolls throughout 2016. But what if both sets of data are misleading? What if employers are acting irrationally in adding jobs when their order books don’t justify it? Employers often take their hiring cues from the stock market. And the stock market…

Withholding Taxes and Treasury Cash Drive For Five

The growth rate of current Federal Withholding tax collections as reported in real time, approached 5% in real terms and the Federal Government’s cash account neared a gargantuan $500 billion in October. Other tax data also showed gains. Here’s what this means for the stock and bond markets, and for Friday’s jobs data in particular.…

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…