Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Federal Withholding Tax Collections Bounced Back This Week- Here’s What To Expect

Withholding tax collections have recovered in August after a weak July. This is real time data, so it gives us a heads up on the lagging economic data releases for the month. Here’s what to look for. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually…

Withholding Taxes Bouncing Back In August

Withholding tax collections are bouncing back in August after a weak July. This week is the reference week for the BLS survey. Here’s what the current, real time tax collection means for the coming top line economic data and for the August nonfarm payrolls number, as well as for future Treasury supply. Follow the money. Find the…

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Are Plunging

Withholding tax collections have weakened in July, breaking down from the narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they had been in throughout the second quarter. The nominal growth rate declined to +2.4% this week, which is near or below zero growth in real terms, depending on what you believe the inflation rate to be.…

Treasury Hoards Cash (Why?) As Tax Revenues Soar

Withholding tax collections weakened last week, which has implications for July nonfarm payrolls, but remained in the same narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they have been in since April. The Treasury continues to build and hold record levels of cash instead of increasing spending. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of…

Why Is US Treasury Hoarding Cash From Blockbuster Tax Collections?

The US Treasury continues to see strong growth in tax collections, but instead of reducing debt offerings commensurately it has been building an immense stash of cash. Does the government know something we don’t? Maybe. Two key line items in the month end totals from the Daily Treasury Statement have been slowing for the past…

Treasury Continues To Pile Up Cash, Withholding Taxes Stay Strong

Treasury Piles Up Cash

Withholding tax collections continued to grow at a strong pace through the period ended June 23. The annual growth rate has hit a plateau around +6% after accelerating for a couple months in the normal cyclical pattern. The peak of this cycle is due this month. So far, the pullback has been minimal. This has…

Tax Collection Bubble Rages On in June

Withholding tax collections continued to grow at a strong pace through the period ended June 10. The annual growth rate has hit a plateau around +6% after accelerating for a couple months in the normal 3-4 month cyclical pattern. The peak of this cycle is due this month. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is…

US Government Tax Collections and Cash Level Go From Strong To Stronger

Withholding tax collections grew a little faster over the past week. They have been modestly accelerating since early April, in what appears to be a muted but otherwise normal intermediate cycle. The peak of this cycle is due in June. There’s nothing in the data to indicate any shift in the trend of the US…

Fed Balance Sheet Review – Treasury Deposits Started Shrinking Last Week

The Treasury’s balance at the Fed has begun to decline from the record level it reached in early May as tax payments due on April 15 continued to be processed. The government is now spending the massive tax windfall. With tax demands now lower, the government’s spending should give the economic data a little bump…