Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Federal Tax Collections Remain Near Stall Speed

The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates,…

Tax Collections Weak- How Will Fed and Market React to Bad Econ Data?

The growth rate of withholding taxes has been weak through December. It’s the worst performance of the year. Here’s what it means. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction…

Withholding Tax Collections Collapse Through Early December

The growth rate of withholding taxes has been softening since early November and is now on the verge of signaling recession if the decline continues. That has implications for the markets next year. Likewise the drop in withholding has implications for the December nonfarm payrolls announcement 3 weeks from now. Follow the money. Find the…

Markets Hold Up In Spite Of Intense Pounding From Treasury

The growth rate withholding taxes softened slightly last week. The Treasury supplemented its income with massive new debt offerings raising its cash on hand to a record level. In spite of that, the markets barely sagged, with fixed income taking the brunt. This report covers the details on government revenues and cash levels for the…

Treasury Quickly Rebuilds Its Cash, To The Detriment Of The Markets

The data from the Daily Treasury Statement showed a massive increase in Treasury cash this week as a result of huge new cash management bill offerings and massive increases in the 4 week bills. Treasury cash is now back to normal for this time of year. The expected big increase in Treasury supply that we…

Withholding Tax Collections Rose This Week

Growth in withholding tax collections was slightly stronger in the last week. Here’s what it means to the stock and bond markets. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction…

The Most Important News Today – Treasury announces 69-Day Bill- The Clawback Begins

This is even more important than the FOMC announcement. Now that the debt limit deal is all but signed, sealed, and delivered, the Treasury will begin to claw back some of the $140 billion in cash it paid to dealers and other investors who held expiring 4 week bills, and maturing 2 year notes that were not rolled over since September 15,