Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Tax Data Shows The Economy IS Weakening- Here’s Why The Market Doesn’t See It As Bearish

Real time withholding tax collection data continues to show the US economy contracting. But for the past 60 years there has been a reason why the market may not see that as a reason for prices to fall. Here’s why that is. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the…

Federal Tax Data Evidence of Recession Continues To Pile Up

In addition to declining Federal withholding tax revenue declining through March 10, the just released Monthly Treasury Statement for February provides more evidence that the US economy is contracting. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So…

Real Time Tax Collections Show That US Economy Is Contracting

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, March 3, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, has turned negative. This shows that the US economy is now contracting. Other categories of the now complete collections data for February support this conclusion. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where…

Egg Face- Withholding Collections Growth Drops To Zero

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still…

Collapse In Real Time Withholding Tax Collections Approaches Depression Levels

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 18, approached a level which signals not just recession but is within a couple of percent of indicating a full fledged economic depression. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows…

Negative Trends In Tax Collections Persist

The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has been falling since October. It turned negative in inflation adjusted terms in late December and has grown increasingly negative since then. This is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. The question now becomes when weakening economic data will begin to trigger Fed talk…

Collapsing Federal Revenues Through February 4 Show US In Deepening Recession

The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has grown increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than a month. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. Other data confirms. As reported here previously, withholding tax collections accurately foreshadowed a negative surprise…

Real Time Tax Collection Data Shows US Economy Crashing

The growth rate of withholding taxes has been growing increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than four weeks. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money…

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Last Week Again Point To Recession

The growth rate of withholding taxes has now remained negative in inflation adjusted terms for two weeks. This followed a weak December. The implied real growth rate is now roughly -2 to -2.5% year over year. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it…

Withholding Tax Collections Now Suggest Recession

The growth rate of withholding taxes has turned negative. If that sticks, it will spell big trouble for the markets. This report explores the basics of how that will work. And it’s not what the Wall Street shills and their media handmaidens preach. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in…