Macro liqudity been bullish since early July. That was no secret. We were fully informed and prepared. And it’s no secret that this balance is about to flip to bearish. Really bearish. Can our beloved Fed get ahead of that curve? The US Treasury issued its quarterly refunding report this week. So we now know…
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Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
Flies in The Bulls’ Macro Ointment
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Macro liquidity is growing at a historically rapid pace, but much slower than in the second quarter. And there are signs of trouble brewing. Here’s what they are and what to do about them.
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
Light Treasury Supply, Even Paydowns, and Ongoing QE – Still Bullish
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Fed QE and Treasury supply remain roughly in balance. The Fed is still funding most, if not all new issuance, either by direct purchase of Treasuries, or indirect funding via purchases of MBS. Meanwhile delayed tax collections are creating a July cash windfall for the Treasury. It’s all bullish for the next two weeks. But…
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
When Deleveraging Isn’t a Good Thing
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Fed doesn’t know what it will do until it does it, neither does the market. And it’s likely to take the market longer to figure it out than it takes us, if we’re paying attention. Which we are.
Here’s what we know and what to do about it.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
Don’t Be Fooled by Things That Look Good Now
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Treasury’s numbers for June were as bad as expected. Early July numbers look good, but it’s a trick. Here’s how we know, and what that means for the markets.
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks, Except Only the Part That Matters
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Wall Street media shills have noted that the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunken a bit in recent weeks. Let’s get this out of the way first. It’s meaningless and temporary. Here’s why, and here’s what really matters. Subscribers, click here to download the report Not a subscriber yet? Get this report and access to all…
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
Backed By Lansky, Dealers Do Enough To Keep The Players at the Tables
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Meyer Lansky like Fed has cut back QE, but Treasury supply has also receded. So the Fed is still funding most new issuance, either by direct purchase of Treasuries, or indirect funding via purchases of MBS. That has allowed the dealers enough flexibility to keep the players at the gaming tables. Are they being…
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking
Primary Dealers Deleverage and Grow Cautious
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
As the Fed has cut back on QE, Primary Dealers have also cut back their inventories of Treasuries and the leverage that they use to finance them. That’s not bullish. Here are the details and a few charts along with a suggested strategy to play the dealers’ game, not the one they want you to play as they set up new traders for the kill.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
June Swoon
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Treasury’s numbers are in for June and they’re not good. First things first. The BLS jobs data is just BS.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
The Virus Is the Economy
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Common sense says that as case numbers increase, tax collections would fall and vice versa, REGARDLESS of whether governments imposed lockdowns. So my expectation was that as governors across the country lifted restrictions, case numbers would rise, and tax collections would fall.
Well here we are.