Liquidity Trader Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, European banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Light Treasury Supply, Even Paydowns, and Ongoing QE – Still Bullish

Fed QE and Treasury supply remain roughly in balance. The Fed is still funding most, if not all new issuance, either by direct purchase of Treasuries, or indirect funding via purchases of MBS. Meanwhile delayed tax collections are creating a July cash windfall for the Treasury. It’s all bullish for the next two weeks. But…

Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks, Except Only the Part That Matters

Wall Street media shills have noted that the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunken a bit in recent weeks. Let’s get this out of the way first. It’s meaningless and temporary. Here’s why, and here’s what really matters. Subscribers, click here to download the report  Not a subscriber yet? Get this report and access to all…

Backed By Lansky, Dealers Do Enough To Keep The Players at the Tables

The Meyer Lansky like Fed has cut back QE, but Treasury supply has also receded. So the Fed is still funding most new issuance, either by direct purchase of Treasuries, or indirect funding via purchases of MBS. That has allowed the dealers enough flexibility to keep the players at the gaming tables. Are they being…

Primary Dealers Deleverage and Grow Cautious

As the Fed has cut back on QE, Primary Dealers have also cut back their inventories of Treasuries and the leverage that they use to finance them. That’s not bullish. Here are the details and a few charts along with a suggested strategy to play the dealers’ game, not the one they want you to play as they set up new traders for the kill.