Whereas, in the course of human events… Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Wait! Who starts a report with “Whereas!”…
After a strong June, tax collections weakened in July. Do they suggest that the widely feared recession may already have begun, or that maybe it’s…
Primary Dealers remain net short the bond market, considering both their securities portfolios and futures hedges. That’s a problem, considering not only what’s going on…
Last week we saw that the price to liquidity ratio measures suggested that the rally was in its end stage. The most recent data gives…
The only thing keeping the market afloat is the willingness of big market participants to take on leverage to continue buying stocks and bonds. Increasingly…
The combination of market sentiment that has gone insane and the coming deluge of Treasury supply have rendered the financial markets increasingly fragile. At the…
Withholding tax collections were strong in June. The US economy shows no sign of slowing. More importantly, strong revenue growth has restrained the growth of…
Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money…
Primary Dealers have reduced their fixed income portfolio hedging at the worst possible time. They are facing a deluge of supply in the months ahead,…
Repo data has been an important part of our liquidity analysis for many years. But the data had shortcomings. It showed only the banking system…
