I’ve marveled at the ability of the players to keep stock prices rising despite the reduction of Fed QE, and the continued pounding of Treasury supply on the market. Even more amazing is the fact that the rally in stocks has NOT come at the expense of the Treasury market. The Treasury market has managed not to blow up.
We may still find out just how bad things are. Because the dealers remain leveraged to the hilt. And there’s one more thing.
We knew this was coming. $265 billion in MBS settlements for May are almost done. Now we reap the whirlwind. Here’s what to expect and why it’s time to GTFO.
Treasury issuance has caught up with QE. There are no more excess funds lying around for dealers to use to mark up stock and bond prices. The balance has shifted. It’s not as bullish as it was, that’s for sure. And it could get much, much worse in the weeks ahead before the Fed reacts.
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least 140% of outlays. Even more in good years.
Revenues covered just 24% of outlays in April. We borrowed 76 cents of every dollar the Federal Government spent last month.
We knew this was coming. The questions now are how long it can last, when it will start to recover, and whether it might get worse.
Macro liquidity has slowed slightly in recent weeks as the Fed has taken its foot off the accelerator. But it continues to grow at an historic pace. What does that mean for the short term and the long term.
There is no long term.
The Fed has cut back its POMO purchases to an average of $8 billion per day of Treasuries and $6 billion of MBS this week. That’s down from $10 billion and $8 billion last week, and hundreds of billions in the peak of the panic in April.
The effects of that are beginning to show up in stock prices. Be prepared because here’s what happens next.
The Federal deficit hit $1 trillion in April. That’s a cool 1,500% increase year to year. That’s for one month. Here are the current horrible numbers, along with the immediate outlook, and what it means for stocks and bonds.
The Fed just posted how much help it will give the market next week and son of a gun! It’s cutting again. The implications of this are yooge! Apparently Jaysus saves not! At least not the stock market. Doesn’t he care? Is this ritual sacrifice?
Here’s what you need to do now to protect yourself from Jaysus Powell’s Revenge.
Today’s the day. The Fed announces its next plan. You may have already seen it by the time you read this.
But really. What difference does it make? The Fed has trashed its plan without notice 3 times in the past year and a half.
In the past 2 months, it has had no plan at all. It just responds willy-nilly to whatever happens in the news. My god! The Fed bailed out Carnival Cruise Lines. You know we’re in trouble when the Fed bails out Carnival. The blatant cronyism of the plutocrat class is breathtaking. And the sheep just yawn, placated by a few crumbs thrown their way.
So Jerry and the JayJays will sing yet a new song today. Maybe they’ll stick with the new tune for a few weeks or months. Maybe they won’t. We just have to keep tracking what they do and watching the market response.
Here’s what you need to know.