Lee’s Free Thinking

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One More Word on Reverse REPOs

As almost all WSE authors posted their view on reverse REPO announcement, I think I have to post my take as well. Yes, in general I think it is a warning to some of the most leveraged carry-trade players. But my view is a small refinement in the same d…

Currency and the stock market

The number of blogs commenting on dollar vs stocks inverse correlation is approaching infinitum. I won’t try to summarize what I found, I just want to place some accents.
First let me post the short-term correlation chart (source):

The correlati…

A Dead Cat Bounce Is Not “Recovery”

The reported rise in retail sales yesterday had the media had in a full throated bull chorale. Boomberg breathlessly screamed: Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the…

True Lies

Lies Lies Lies Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and…

Fundamentals, News and the Market

We all hear from all possible stock market advisers and economists that the market discounts all news in advance, essentially validating the tradition to call news “newsnoise”. And I totally agree with that. However I also hear as many times that the market discounts  fundamentals well in advance. And here’s the problem. It turns out that many […]

The Real Unemployment Rate

Several years ago, before it became fashionable I began reporting here on the real unemployment rate, what the government calls the U6, which includes discouraged workers and those employed part time who want full time work but can’t get it. Lately the mainstream media has begun to notice this number, and over the past few…

A Look Behind The Numbers

by Chicago Bear (Stool Pigeons Wire- 10/30/09) Here’s what they said in the GDP report: The improvement in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in personal consumption, inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by rise in imports, a downturn…