Fast Facts

Lee Adler’s brief observations on the market, economy and financial system with illustrative charts

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European Bank Deposit Crash Even Worse Than It Looks

The European banking collapse continues. The decline in deposits has now devolved into a crash. Deposit levels have broken their 2015 lows. If the deposits chart was a price chart, it would be a breakdown from a top pattern that took a year to build. That would portend a major decline ahead. The collapse is…

Key Industrial Indicators Say US Is Still In Long Term Depression

Last week we reviewed US industrial production (IP) and saw that it has been contracting for more than a year. The IP indexes represent the production of factories, mines, and utilities in unit volume, not dollar sales, both by total output and output by industry. While these indexes do not represent service industries directly, they do indirectly…

Wall Street Journal’s Housing Reporting Is Not News Reporting- It’s Marketing

First let’s go to the slant. The Wall Street Journal spun the tall tale that “U.S. Existing-Home Sales Rebounded in September.” The Journal also claimed that the “Rise ends two-month slide as housing sector shows signs of stabilizing.” As for the facts, I can only say that either the Wall Street Journal’s reporters have no clue how to read…

JOLTS Untold Story

Job Openings and Stock Prices

Buried several layers deep in the data beneath the headline economic numbers is always a story that the mainstream media never tells.  The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is no exception. The media used to ignore the JOLTS. Then they got wind of the fact that it was Janet Yellen’s favorite indicator, and…

Macro Liquidity Still Rising But So Is Market Friction

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August and bonds sold off in September as heavy Treasury supply and foreign sovereign liquidation of Treasury holdings created friction in the markets. Liquidity growth has been slowing, and while overall liquidity is still rising, the market response to rising liquidity has been diminishing as friction builds.

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

Here’s Why You May Want To Tiptoe Out Before The Party Ends

Private spending on capital goods is a measure of business confidence in the economy. If business people believe the economy will grow, they invest more in plant and equipment. If they are not optimistic, they pull in their horns. This week’s Commerce Department report on Durable Goods orders contains a nugget or two that help us to…

The Great Divergence- Orders Not So Durable As Stock Prices Bubble

“U.S. factories reported flat demand for big-ticket goods in August, suggesting the economy continues to be restrained by sluggish business spending,” reported The Wall Street Journal. They got that right (for a change)! In the stock market game of pin the tail on the number, the Journal pointed out that the economists it surveyed had,…