The European banking collapse continues. The decline in deposits has now devolved into a crash. Deposit levels have broken their 2015 lows. If the deposits chart was a price chart, it would be a breakdown from a top pattern that took a year to build. That would portend a major decline ahead. The collapse is…
Fast Facts
Lee Adler’s brief observations on the market, economy and financial system with illustrative charts
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Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
Key Industrial Indicators Say US Is Still In Long Term Depression
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Last week we reviewed US industrial production (IP) and saw that it has been contracting for more than a year. The IP indexes represent the production of factories, mines, and utilities in unit volume, not dollar sales, both by total output and output by industry. While these indexes do not represent service industries directly, they do indirectly…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
Wall Street Journal’s Housing Reporting Is Not News Reporting- It’s Marketing
by Lee Adler • • 1 Comment
First let’s go to the slant. The Wall Street Journal spun the tall tale that “U.S. Existing-Home Sales Rebounded in September.” The Journal also claimed that the “Rise ends two-month slide as housing sector shows signs of stabilizing.” As for the facts, I can only say that either the Wall Street Journal’s reporters have no clue how to read…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
Inflation Above Target For Five Straight Years and Counting
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Ben Bernanke first set an official inflation target in January 2012, aiming at 2%. Since then the Fed has claimed that it would begin to normalize interest rates when the target was reached and unemployment fell below 5%. The latter goal has long been met, but what about the inflation target?
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
JOLTS Untold Story
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Buried several layers deep in the data beneath the headline economic numbers is always a story that the mainstream media never tells. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is no exception. The media used to ignore the JOLTS. Then they got wind of the fact that it was Janet Yellen’s favorite indicator, and…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking, Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking, Liquidity Trader Complete
Macro Liquidity Still Rising But So Is Market Friction
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The stock and bond rallies went flat in August and bonds sold off in September as heavy Treasury supply and foreign sovereign liquidation of Treasury holdings created friction in the markets. Liquidity growth has been slowing, and while overall liquidity is still rising, the market response to rising liquidity has been diminishing as friction builds.
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking, Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues, Liquidity Trader Complete
Employers Are Always Last to Get the News
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
Here’s Why You May Want To Tiptoe Out Before The Party Ends
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Private spending on capital goods is a measure of business confidence in the economy. If business people believe the economy will grow, they invest more in plant and equipment. If they are not optimistic, they pull in their horns. This week’s Commerce Department report on Durable Goods orders contains a nugget or two that help us to…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
The Great Divergence- Orders Not So Durable As Stock Prices Bubble
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
“U.S. factories reported flat demand for big-ticket goods in August, suggesting the economy continues to be restrained by sluggish business spending,” reported The Wall Street Journal. They got that right (for a change)! In the stock market game of pin the tail on the number, the Journal pointed out that the economists it surveyed had,…
Fast Facts, Lee's Free Thinking
Main Street Sucker Punched on the Housing “Recovery” – Now Fed Left No Way Out
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Whether you think there has been a housing “recovery” or not is a matter of perspective. Sales are indeed up 117% since the 2010 low, but that low was literally the worst level in the history of this data (since 1963) as a percentage of population growth. It was the Great Depression of Housing, the…
