Fast Facts

Lee Adler’s brief observations on the market, economy and financial system with illustrative charts

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Suspended Ceiling Threatens Crash

The Treasury’s cash account continues to grow on the Fed’s H41, weekly consolidated balance sheet.  It hit $422 billion at the end of November. That’s a firebomb waiting to be thrown at the market in the event of a near certainty of a dead ceiling impasse coming in March. That’s when the deal to suspend…

Stocks Are On The Cliff’s Edge, Not A Permanently High Plateau

Stock prices started to decouple from durable goods orders in 2013 (see previous post). That broke a direct correlation that had existed since 1999. In 2014-2016, durable goods orders went flat, and stock prices went to the moon. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates,…

Existing Home Sales- Another Reason Why You Should Take the Money and Run

The Wall Street Journal reported today that existing home sales, “rose in October for the second straight month to a new cyclical high despite rising prices and shrinking inventory, a sign housing demand remains buoyant as the year comes to a close.” The headline was less cautious. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money.…

Now and Then Donald Trump

Then- Global warming is a con Now- Global warming is a real problem Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds,…

Single Family Housing Starts Surge Before Long Winter of Our Discontent

Yesterday we looked at total housing starts for October. The numbers were very strong. I concluded that within those strong numbers lay the seeds of destruction. Total housing starts are comprised of single family and multi family units. The total number can be misleading about one of the two markets if one is materially stronger…

Bubble Trouble At US Banks

Money supply maintained its rapid growth in October, with the annual growth rate rising to 8%, the fastest growth since a brief surge at the end of 2012. This suggests bubble dynamics are at work. The Fed hasn’t tightened yet. Speculative behavior has been raging. Speculative lending is growing rapidly. This is unhealthy and will…