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Eurozone Debt Crisis: What to Expect if Greece Dumps the Euro

The only certain thing if Greece leaves the Eurozone is the uncertainty that will certainly follow.

Unable to form a coalition government during May elections, Greece has been forced to hold a second vote on June 17.

In the balance is the future of the Eurozone itself as a “Grexit” looms large.

So much is riding on the outcome that U.S. President Barack Obama and other leaders of the G-8 have conveyed their optimism that Greece will remain in the Eurozone when they convened for a summit on Saturday aimed at keeping Europe’s economic woes from stretching around the globe.

“All of us are absolutely committed to making sure that growth and stability and social consolidation are part of an overall package,” President Obama said.

But many other principals and economic experts are not as committed and believe a Greek exit would be the best move in the long run.

The question is what impact its departure will have beyond its own ailing borders if Greece renounces its debt and leaves the Eurozone.

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Good News for Gold Prices: Commodities are Wounded, But Far From Dead

Greece is frozen in a political stalemate. Youth unemployment is running at over 50%. And there has been a $1 billion run on Greek banks.

From near and afar, there appears to be no easy way out, especially now that the Eurozone is heading back into a recession.

It’s times like these when investors pour into the U.S. dollar for its “perceived safety.”

With commodities priced in U.S. dollars, this spike in the greenback has sent commodities-including gold prices-into a tailspin since early March.

That has many doubters asking: “Has the commodities super-cycle ended?”

It’s a reasonable question considering the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is back down to levels it last saw in September 2010.

What’s more, gold prices have backed off to near $1,500/oz., and oil prices have fallen from $110 to $90/barrel.

But as you’ll see, the commodities coin does have another side.

The Other Side of the Commodities Story

In fact, a recent article by Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, pointed out how China and other emerging nations are in better fiscal shape than much of the West.

Even if China is slowing somewhat, it is still growing at an enviable 8% per year, with only 42% debt to GDP ratio. So rather than go for more outright stimulus, it’s expected that China will target new loan growth and its M2-money supply growth to around 14%.

Meanwhile, India and Australia have just lowered interest rates while other central banks are basically refusing to raise rates.

It means the world will keep turning, people will keep consuming and annual demand of raw materials is likely to remain elevated.

As for gold prices, let’s cut right to the chase.

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Where Are Oil Prices Headed?

The uncertainty looming around worldwide economies sent oil prices sinking below $90 a barrel yesterday (Wednesday), a level not seen since October of last year.

Benchmark crude slid $1.95 Wednesday to finish the day at $89.90 per barrel.

The decline came on the heels of several weeks of slipping oil, sparked by a plethora of less than stellar economic reports. The concerning data mostly involved Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt saga.

Oil gained 0.5% in early afternoon New York trading Thursday, but the reasons for the rally were unclear.

“You don’t know if this is just a short-covering rally or the start of a more significant rally,” Andy Lebow, an oil analyst with Jefferies, told The Wall Street Journal. Lebow said that progress in the talks between Iran and Western powers about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions could have spurred Thursday’s price reversal.

If the gain isn’t maintained, however, prices could head closer to $85 a barrel.

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