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Category: Money Morning

Investing in Japan: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Most people have given up on investing in Japan.

With an aging population and far too much government debt, the conventional wisdom is that Japan will never again see the vigorous economic growth it once enjoyed.

The earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 only reinforced this view. However, that tragic episode did have another side.

It showed the resilience and discipline of Japanese society.

There was almost no looting, for example — and recent economic data suggest that the Japanese economy is not as dead as it seemed.

First quarter Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) came in at an annual growth rate of 4.1% –far higher than the United States, Canada, Australia, or anywhere in the Eurozone.

Given that Japan has been in perpetual near-recession for 21 years, with no surges of productivity like the U.S. enjoyed in the late 1990s, it’s really not a bad performance.

You can also see Japan’s true strength from its exchange rate, which is currently 79 yen to the dollar, up from around 120 five years ago. That makes visiting Tokyo very expensive.

However, it’s also sign of a highly competitive economy.

Investing in Japan: What You Need to Know

It’s notable that observers in the United States, a country which perpetually runs payment deficits of $500 billion-$600 billion annually, sneer at the economies of Japan and Germany, which are almost always in surplus.

Before 1995, I lived in another economy that was similar. Britain ran deficits much like the U.S. does.

So believe me when I tell you, deficits are not exactly a sign of superior economic health.

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Why Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is Too Rich For the Dow Jones

Assuming the Dow Jones Industrial Average represents the biggest, most influential companies in America, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) easily qualifies.

With its massive market cap, trend-setting products, and global brand recognition, it is easy to argue Apple belongs as much or more than any of the current tech companies in the index.

In fact, Apple has superseded all of them, particularly Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT).

Yet the Dow Jones has ignored Apple while letting far weaker companies like, Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC)and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) remain.

So what gives?…

In a nutshell, Apple stock is too rich for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Because the Dow Jones is price-weighted, Apple’s current $565 share price would simply overwhelm the index.

If included, Apple stock would account for about 25% of the Dow Jones. That’s more than double the 11.5% of current leader International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM).

“It wouldn’t be the Dow Jones Industrial Average,” Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group told the Associated Press. “It would be the Apple Plus Some Other Stuff Index.”

In this case, a price move of just 5% in Apple stock could push the DJIA up – or down – about 200 points.

Looking at it another way, had Apple been added to the Dow Jones in 2009 instead of Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), the Dow would now be over 15,000.

That’s well above the Oct. 2007 record of 14,164 and 2,500 points higher than where it stands today.

With that kind of heft, it’s no wonder the Dow has shunned Apple.

How the Dow Jones Industrial Average Works

But it’s not just Apple. Other Dow candidates trade high in the triple digits as well.

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Eurozone Debt Crisis: What to Expect if Greece Dumps the Euro

The only certain thing if Greece leaves the Eurozone is the uncertainty that will certainly follow.

Unable to form a coalition government during May elections, Greece has been forced to hold a second vote on June 17.

In the balance is the future of the Eurozone itself as a “Grexit” looms large.

So much is riding on the outcome that U.S. President Barack Obama and other leaders of the G-8 have conveyed their optimism that Greece will remain in the Eurozone when they convened for a summit on Saturday aimed at keeping Europe’s economic woes from stretching around the globe.

“All of us are absolutely committed to making sure that growth and stability and social consolidation are part of an overall package,” President Obama said.

But many other principals and economic experts are not as committed and believe a Greek exit would be the best move in the long run.

The question is what impact its departure will have beyond its own ailing borders if Greece renounces its debt and leaves the Eurozone.

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Good News for Gold Prices: Commodities are Wounded, But Far From Dead

Greece is frozen in a political stalemate. Youth unemployment is running at over 50%. And there has been a $1 billion run on Greek banks.

From near and afar, there appears to be no easy way out, especially now that the Eurozone is heading back into a recession.

It’s times like these when investors pour into the U.S. dollar for its “perceived safety.”

With commodities priced in U.S. dollars, this spike in the greenback has sent commodities-including gold prices-into a tailspin since early March.

That has many doubters asking: “Has the commodities super-cycle ended?”

It’s a reasonable question considering the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is back down to levels it last saw in September 2010.

What’s more, gold prices have backed off to near $1,500/oz., and oil prices have fallen from $110 to $90/barrel.

But as you’ll see, the commodities coin does have another side.

The Other Side of the Commodities Story

In fact, a recent article by Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, pointed out how China and other emerging nations are in better fiscal shape than much of the West.

Even if China is slowing somewhat, it is still growing at an enviable 8% per year, with only 42% debt to GDP ratio. So rather than go for more outright stimulus, it’s expected that China will target new loan growth and its M2-money supply growth to around 14%.

Meanwhile, India and Australia have just lowered interest rates while other central banks are basically refusing to raise rates.

It means the world will keep turning, people will keep consuming and annual demand of raw materials is likely to remain elevated.

As for gold prices, let’s cut right to the chase.

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Where Are Oil Prices Headed?

The uncertainty looming around worldwide economies sent oil prices sinking below $90 a barrel yesterday (Wednesday), a level not seen since October of last year.

Benchmark crude slid $1.95 Wednesday to finish the day at $89.90 per barrel.

The decline came on the heels of several weeks of slipping oil, sparked by a plethora of less than stellar economic reports. The concerning data mostly involved Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt saga.

Oil gained 0.5% in early afternoon New York trading Thursday, but the reasons for the rally were unclear.

“You don’t know if this is just a short-covering rally or the start of a more significant rally,” Andy Lebow, an oil analyst with Jefferies, told The Wall Street Journal. Lebow said that progress in the talks between Iran and Western powers about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions could have spurred Thursday’s price reversal.

If the gain isn’t maintained, however, prices could head closer to $85 a barrel.

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Patent War with Samsung A Fight No One Wins

Like two mighty monsters in a 1950s sci-fi B-movie, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung Electronics Co. (PINK: SSNLF) have locked horns for over a year in an epic patent war neither can win.

Over the past year, the two tech titans have filed dozens of patent infringement lawsuits against each other in 10 countries. Most seek to block the sale of one or more of the other’s smartphone and tablet products.

The biggest case, filed in San Jose, CA, is scheduled for a July trial, which U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh is desperate to avoid. (She called the case “cruel and unusual punishment” for the jury.)

Earlier this week Koh ordered the CEOs of both Apple and Samsung to meet in mediation sessions, but nothing came of the meetings.

The mutual stubbornness makes sense when you realize what’s at stake.

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Is Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) a Replay of the AOL/Time Warner Deal?

I hope you didn’t buy shares of Facebook (Nasdaq: FB). The valuation was always too aggressive.

And increasing both the price and amount of Facebook stock at the last moment ensured that both underwriters and retail investors ended up with far more shares than they bargained for.

In fact, the Facebook fiasco reminds me of another deal that marked the peak of the dot-com boom.

No, not the ineffable and rather sweet Pets.com- their IPO was far too small a deal to have genuine market significance.

Instead I’m talking about the AOL and Time Warner merger announced on January 10, 2000.

Like Facebook, the deal was sold as a big success. It was only later that it quickly became clear that AOL had sold itself at the absolute peak of the market.

From there on out it was all downhill as the storied merger practically top-ticked the market.

Before Facebook There Was AOL

AOL had built up a nice business from “dial-up” Internet access, but it was already obvious by January 2000 that the arrival of broadband Internet would make for a difficult transition.

As such, AOL’s market capitalization of around $200 billion was purely the result of the frothy market of 1999.

Nevertheless, that rich valuation enabled AOL to become the senior partner in an acquisition of the Time Warner media conglomerate, getting 55% of the merged company in a deal valued at $350 billion. It was the largest merger in U.S. history.

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Gold Prices and the "Grexit" Effect

Lately gold priceshave been affected by a strengthening dollar resulting from troubles overseas.
On Tuesday, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told Dow Jones Newswires that considerations were being made for a potential exit by Greece from the euro. He also warned that such an exit would be “catastrophic” for the country and that fallout across the entire Eurozone would be severe.

Why is Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) Stock Falling?- Money Morning

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) investors have cringed as the stock slipped about 16% from its peak over the last two months.

But given the absence of any catastrophic bad news, why is AAPL stock tumbling? And where will it stop?

It’s important to note off the bat that Apple’s fundamentals are just as strong as they were last fall when the stock began its huge run-up from just under $400 to $636.23 on April 9 (it hit an intraday high of $644 on April 10).

In short: Apple still expects to make a mountain of profit this year. Apple still has over $100 billion in cash with no debt. The company’s price/earnings ratio is about 13.50 for the trailing 12 months and its forward P/E just 10.

So something else must be driving down Apple stock. Some of it is logical, some of it emotional – but none of it permanent.

Let’s take a closer look:

  • A Parabolic Rise: First and foremost, AAPL simply rose too far too quickly. Rapid gains beg profit-taking.

“It was clear to me that this kind of reversal was coming – and sooner rather than later,” said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald when the selloff started in April. “The shares had soared 75% in just five months – one analyst actually described the performance as “euphoric.'”

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