Email Bulletins Archive

An archive of Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletins

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Hours Worked Unchanged From Last Year While Compensation Grew 2%

The BLS reported Friday that average hourly earnings rose by 2.1%  on a yearly basis to $23.80 in August, but down from $23.83 in July. The annual rate of increase has been very volatile, jumping from just 1.3% in July while June was up 2.8%.  The rate of increase in average wages has fluctuated from…

Big News Isn’t That Payrolls Missed, It’s That the Number Is Wrong

The big news shouldn’t be the nonfarm payrolls number. The big news is the fact that the number is almost certain to be proven materially wrong. How ridiculous is it to pay any attention to the initial release, especially when the BLS reports a gaping margin of error of +/-90,000 and is often revised by…

Strongest Initial Claims Data Since Before Crash Gives Fed Excuse To Taper

Today’s initial jobless claims release is another piece of evidence that Friday’s jobs data should beat the consensus giving the Fed an excuse to announce The Taper on September 18. Initial claims for unemployment compensation declined at an annual rate of 12.7% last week, which was faster than the previous week’s 10.9% rate and the…

It Wasn’t QE That Drove Down Long Term Rates, Here’s What Did – Video

This video by Wall Street Examiner Productions answers the question. If you are receiving this by email, click here to view. From mid November 2012 just before the Fed began to settle its QE3 MBS purchases to the date of the current statement, SOMA has grown by  more than $800 billion. Meanwhile the yield on the…

Pending Home Sales Up 8.6% Disprove The Idea That Higher Rates Are Slowing The Bubble

As the media report a decline in the number of contracts to purchase existing homes in July, the truth is a little different. They’re talking about the seasonally adjusted headline number, representing an idealized month to month change. That isn’t the actual number. The actual number of  contracts did fall from June, but they normally…

Here’s How Real Durable Goods Orders Shows US Manufacturing Remains In A Slow Motion Collapse

The headline number on durable goods orders was shockingly bad, which we all know is bullish. For a change the SA data wasn’t misleading. Underlying the seasonally massaged (SA) headline data (see Note below), the actual data, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), was just as bad. After backing out inflation, real durable goods orders continue to trend down,…

Industrial Production Confirmed Economic Slowdown In July As Stocks Bubbled

Industrial Production slowed in July, while stock prices were bubbling away. QE apparently caused a stock market bubble but it has not boosted production. The Fed reported last week that seasonally adjusted Industrial Production was unchanged in July after having gained 0.2 percent in June (press release).   The consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.4%.…

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Is A Great Long Term Leading Indicator For Stock Prices

The St. Louis Fed updated its weekly Financial Stress Index today. It looks pretty innocuous. According the fine folks who produce FRED, the big chart database, a reading below zero indicates low stress. I look at this chart and think, “ho hum.” But something told me to turn the chart upside down because most things…