Macro Liquidity Indicators and extreme leverage continue to suggest that the stock market is in a topping phase.
Withholding tax collections are up 8.5% year-over-year, part of a persistent pattern this year. That’s actual real time data, not statistical guesswork. It directly contradicts the mainstream story of slowing jobs and moderate inflation.
This report…
Withholding tax collections are up 8.5% year-over-year, part of a persistent pattern this year. That’s actual real time data, not statistical guesswork. It directly contradicts the mainstream story of slowing jobs and moderate inflation.
This report…
Primary dealers are propping up record Treasury issuance with no cash cushion left. Every new purchase is repo-financed. Hedge funds are pressing shorts. Net exposures look balanced, but leverage is surging toward the danger zone. Stability here is an …
Macro Liquidity Indicators and extreme leverage continue to suggest that the stock market is in a topping phase.
The Treasury’s funding needs, combined with the end of the Fed’s RRP market support fund, stagnant repo activity, and extreme margin leverage, create a setup that looks like a late-stage bull market. The markets are holding for now, but the pillars are…
Withholding growth is steady, but nominal strength masks a weaker inflation-adjusted picture. The surge in tariff revenue is already being undermined by plunging corporate tax collections. Outlays are seeing huge increases resulting in larger deficits …
The wall was at the top of the liquidity cliff. He dared the market to jump. Today it did. When the market is ready, a catalyst appears. The tariffs, and a weak jobs report lit the match.
Will it have a great fall, or levitate once more?
The wall was at the top of the liquidity cliff. He dared the market to jump. Today it did. When the market is ready, a catalyst appears. The tariffs, and a weak jobs report lit the match.
Will it have a great fall, or levitate once more?
The wall was at the top of the liquidity cliff. He dared the market to jump. Today it did. When the market is ready, a catalyst appears. The tariffs, and a weak jobs report lit the match.
Will it have a great fall, or levitate once more?