“One of the things I most want to emphasize is how essential it is that one’s investment approach be intuitive and adaptive rather than be fixed and mechanistic.” -Howard Marks One huge trend I’ve noticed in financial social media lately is the use of statistics and market history to project future price movements. This is […]
Recently there have been numerous major economic agencies warning of the growing and severe risks in the debt markets. Investors have shrugged them off as they seem to think that their bond fund is immune as are equities. They’re not. The Geneva Report, released last month, revealed that there has been no progress made in reducing debt […]
I titled my latest weekly newsletter (subscribe here for free), “The Trend Is Still Your Friend But Beware The Fat Tail.” After today’s action, however, you could make the case that the trend might be more of a frenemy at this point. Stocks sold off across the board and all of the major indexes have […]
FRED recently updated the data I’ve been using for my fundamental and sentiment measures from Q1 to Q2 of this year so I thought it would be a good time to post an update to my market-timing model (see “Seeing The Forest For The Trees“). First, there is the fundamental component for which I use […]
I can’t stop thinking about this interview with Bill Fleckenstein on CNBC the other day because it’s just the perfect example of the current stock market zeitgeist. Fleck was brought on to talk about the new short fund he’s setting up for the first time since closing his last fund in 2009. As a longtime […]
Back in 2000, I had one of my best years as an investor. You may remember that year marked the peak of the greatest stock market bubble in history. Anyhow, while everyone and their mom was buying internet stocks I was loading up on the exact opposite. One of the unique things about that time […]
The chart above plots corporate profit margins as a percent of GNP alongside the Wilshire 5000 Index. I ran it because I was curious to look at profit margin cycles and how they relate to stock market cycles. It’s probably an understatement to say that the current bull market has had a strong profit margin […]
A good deal of attention has already been paid to the growing divergence between small cap and large cap stocks so far this year. The former have seen a small decline while the latter have risen about 8%. But I’ve seen very little commentary regarding WHY this might be happening. Of the many divergences the […]
My recent piece, “The New Wolves Of Wall Street,” struck a nerve. I think it taps into both advisers’ insecurities and investors’ worries about not getting what they pay for. Good. That’s what I was going for. Before I follow up on that piece, though, let me make a couple of things clear. First, there […]
Wall Street is in the midst of some pretty massive change right now. And I’m talking about Wall Street as it relates to Main Street. I’m talking about how individual investors are being courted (hunted) and cared for (killed) by the new wolves of Wall Street. Brokers have now become an endangered species as the […]
