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Author: Guest Editorial

Why Veteran Trader Says Inflation in 2013 Is Imminent – Money Morning

Is a spike in the monetary base – currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed – the first sign of imminent inflation?

Art Cashin, the well-respected director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS, recently told King World News the increase in the monetary base may well be a sign of impending inflation.

Monetary base, sometimes called high-powered money, is the basis for the bank lending that drives our economy. When interest rates are normal, banks use their reserves for lending.

Unfortunately, these are not normal times. The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world continue to hold interest rates at zero.

Zero interest rates mean zero returns. Investors don’t get paid for investing. Banks don’t get paid enough interest to compensate for the risk of lending money into the economy. Looking at it another way, there is no penalty for doing nothing with your money.

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Are Japanese Stocks a “Buy” with the Nikkei on the Rise? – Money Morning

Anyone invested in Japanese stocks took notice when the country’s minister of state for economic and fiscal policy, Akira Amari, said at a Yokohama meeting that he hopes the government takes steps to push shares of the Nikkei 225 up about 17% to 13,000.

“I would like the government to take successive steps to push share prices higher,”Amari said Saturday. “Higher share prices work to improve corporate earnings. It is important for the government to show that it will work hard to aim at having the [Nikkei 225] index hit 13,000 by the end of the fiscal year in March.”

Amari also noted the Nikkei was up more than 2,000 points since former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced the dissolution of the Diet in November. In fact, the Nikkei 225 Stock Averagelast week closed at its highest since September 2008 after a 12-week advance that was the longest such streak since 1959, according to Nikkei Inc.

Articles in the English-language press misidentified Amari as minister of finance – a position held by former Prime Minister Taro Aso – making the comments seem more like official government policy.

Of course, no one in the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be upset if Amari turns out to be correct. Higher share prices are good for the economy and for achieving the government’s aim of ending the deflationary spiral in Japan – and good for anyone who owns Japanese stocks.

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Why Russia is Investing in Gold More Than Anyone – Money Morning

Now we know what Russia has been doing all these years with all its oil mega-profits: investing in gold.

A Bloomberg News article Monday reported that Russia’s central bank added 570 metric tons of gold in the past decade, making the country the world’s biggest gold buyer. That amount is a quarter more than the world’s second-biggest buyer, China.

The amount of gold Russia added to its stockpile is almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty, according to Bloomberg.

It certainly makes sense for Russia to add to its official gold reserves. Gold prices have gained about 400% over the past decade.

“The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound or any other reserve currency,” Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker for Putin’s United Russia party in the lower house of parliament, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview in Moscow.

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Best Investments 2013: What to Buy as Global “Currency Wars” Begin – Money Morning

Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s recent success in talking the yen lower against other currencies has increased fears over “currency wars.” Now investors are on the hunt for the best investments to profit from central bankers’ “race to the bottom” in 2013.

As we’ve pointed out, the Japanese have done nothing overt to weaken the yen – yet. Markets were massively long the Japanese currency and, when Prime Minister Abe called for “unlimited easing” during the election campaign last year and in the run-up to selecting a new Bank of Japan governor, that was all traders needed to hear to begin selling their yen long bets and taking out short positions.

Abe’s great success was in getting the market to do all of the heavy lifting for him.

In fact, Abe has been a little too successful. Minister of Finance Taro Aso told reporters in Tokyo on Friday that the yen had weakened too quickly, which prompted an immediate reversal in the currency markets.

Aso’s comments came after remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Thursday raising concerns that the recent strength of the euro might derail the recovery just gathering momentum in Europe now.

Looking at the interplay of comments from Draghi and Aso last week, it is tempting to think that all of this commotion in the currency markets is being coordinated at the highest level of central banking.

But, with the exception of China, which has been quietly pushing the renminbi toward the lower end of its trading range, no one has done anything. It’s all just talk.

In the financial markets, however, talk is a big industry. Talk gets people to put on trades and that is how bankers and brokers make money.

This leaves investors wondering the best currencies to invest in to profit from these fluctuating values, which is why Morgan Stanley developed a currency war basket trade.

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Early Exit from Bank of Japan Governor is Good for Abe- Money Morning

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday (Tuesdsay) that he will step down a few weeks early, on March 19, in order to align his term, which expires on April 8, with those of the two BoJ deputy governors.

“I told the prime minister that I will resign on March 19 so that a structure with a new governor and two deputy governors can start simultaneously,” Shirakawa said at a press conference called after a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Poicy.

This will enable Abe to replace the entire central bank leadership all at once with people who are more sympathetic to his policy of unlimited easing.

Although some press reports have highlighted the apparent unenthusiastic support Shirakawa is giving to Abe’s policies, Shirakawa’s resignation is really just putting the Bank of Japan leadership transition process back to normal.

The Bank of Japan governor must be approved by both houses of the Diet. Back in 2008, former deputy governor Toshiro Mutoh was nominated for the top spot by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which held a majority in the Lower House but not in the Upper House, where the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) held sway.

The DPJ rejected Mutoh’s nomination and it took three weeks of political infighting before Shirakawa was approved as a compromise candidate and took office on April 9.

The situation is exactly the same today. Abe’s LDP has a super majority in the Lower House but must get some opposition support to get their nominee approved by the Upper House.

By resigning as governor effective March 19, Shirakawa is undoing the delay caused by political wrangling five years ago.

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