One of the main narratives for understanding European economy’s longer term growth outlook has been the risk of Japanification: a long-term stagnation punctuated by recessionary periods and accompanied by low inflation and or deflationary episodes and pressures.
As I noted just a couple of days ago, global trade growth is falling off the cliff (see: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/1215-world-trade-growthnow-scariest.html). And euro area’s trade growth is leading to the downside:So no surprise the…
My comment for Expresso (January 31, 2015, pages 8-9) on Greece:Greece has undertaken an unprecedented level of budgetary adjustments as reflected in the rate of debt accumulation on the Government balance sheet and the size of the primary surplus. Str…
BOFIT published an update on Russian external debt as of the end of December 2014. The update shows the extent of debt deleveraging forced onto Russian banks and companies by the sanctions.In H2 2014, repayments of external debt accelerated.
Markit/Investec Irish Manufacturing PMI is out for January, posting 55.1, down on 56.9 in December and the lowest reading in any month since May 2014.
Russian Manufacturing PMI (Markit and HSBC) for January came in at 47.6, below 50.0 (statistically significant sub-50 reading), down from 48.9 in December.
What do foreign ‘experts’ like BofE Mark Carney forget to tell you when they say that Ireland’s banking system has been [largely] repaired?Oh a lot. But here are just two most important things:Both, in level terms and in growth terms, Irish banks remai…
The scary chart of the month: post-Great Recession, World Trade volumes are growing at the slowest average pace in 35 years (even if we are to 1) exclude recession effects, and 2) accept IMF’s rosy projection for 2015 and ignore latest Baltic Dry Index…
There is an interesting sense of dramatic contradictions emerging when one considers on the one hand the outcome of the Greek elections, and on the other hand the statements from some EU finance ministers
I have recently seen some economists offer the following explanation of the role of bankruptcy in the market economy: “Capitalism without bankruptcy is like catholicism without a concept of hell”.That is a fallacious view at best, and a dangerous basis…