Andy Bebut

2010 Predictions: Run on the Banks

The World is partying like it is 2007 all over again. The reasons are two: the crazy money printed by Helicopter Ben and the moral hazard produced by the universal bailout of everything, everywhere. I still see the traces of sanity in the US consumer…

2010 Predictions: Oil

The spectacular rebound in oil prices in 2009 could be attributed to two major factors: fears of currency debasement that lead to excess hoarding and speculation; and discipline of well-oiled Opec members to cut production. You already know from many p…

2010 Predictions: Interest Rates

Last year I was not making making predictions for 2009, mostly because my call for 2008 was ridiculously correct and I had nothing more to say.  But this year will be different and I’ll try to make some predictions. The most important point to…

The Financial Ring

The big financial question that every econo-blogger must be aware of is: how come that the proportion in profits in the economy as the whole that the financial industry was taking was constantly increasing all the past few decades and yet this same fin…

One More Word on Reverse REPOs

As almost all WSE authors posted their view on reverse REPO announcement, I think I have to post my take as well. Yes, in general I think it is a warning to some of the most leveraged carry-trade players. But my view is a small refinement in the same d…

Currency and the stock market

The number of blogs commenting on dollar vs stocks inverse correlation is approaching infinitum. I won’t try to summarize what I found, I just want to place some accents.
First let me post the short-term correlation chart (source):

The correlati…

Fundamentals, News and the Market

We all hear from all possible stock market advisers and economists that the market discounts all news in advance, essentially validating the tradition to call news “newsnoise”. And I totally agree with that. However I also hear as many times that the market discounts  fundamentals well in advance. And here’s the problem. It turns out that many […]

All about Program Trading

All you need to know about Program Trading but were always afraid to ask.
There is a lot of confusion on the internet about program trading and I have the impression that many people who seriously discuss it in fact are not directly involved in it. So what is program trading?

In the past, when you needed […]

The single Fed mandate

Every time I hear about the Fed dual mandate I feel it’s part of some kind of “find hidden words” game. The real thing is not what they say

The dual mandate says “maintain price stability” and “empower the maximum employment”. Immediately confusing, because I see nothing dualistic here. It never happened in history of any […]