The Treasury market faces growing fragility as Primary Dealers are forced to absorb a relentless supply of government debt. To manage this “deal with the devil,” dealers have turned to extreme financial engineering, ballooning their leverage through re…
Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a…
The market is at a critical inflection point as the S&P 500 completed a top by closing below 6700 last week. A morning rally has rebounded to trend channel lines. While some short-term indicators suggest a potential low forming by xxxx xxxx, the b…
I believe that the behavior of the list in the last couple of weeks indicates a market undergoing major transition, where cyclical factors appear conducive to supporting external shock. But so far, this view has not manifest in the stock screens of mos…
The cycle structures have become clouded, as the price of gold is whipped about on rapid-fire geopolitical developments. The structures now argue for a trading range until there are clear indications that the 9-12 month cycle has entered a down phase, …
I set numerous sell orders for last Monday’s open, with most of those taking sharp losses. Small consolation that it would have been worse had I not done that. And the picks I left in place—energy longs and a short, did ok while 2 new picks on the shor…
The market is positioned to open below a significant top pattern, with technical indicators and cycle analysis suggesting an increasingly likely down phase and major trend weakness.
The federal budget deficit continues to expand as government outlays outpace revenue gains. Withholding tax collections grew strongly, belying the BLS nonfarm payrolls data for February. The tax data indicates a stable employment trend.
The Fed is doing just enough. Repo growth has flattened, leverage may be unwinding, and long term liquidity/sentiment measures remain historically extended. Yet nothing has broken. The bull is on life support, and the next 60 days will tell us whether …
Cycle based screening methodology struggles with rangebound markets where wave frequencies go hyper, amplitudes are large, and/or the market is whipped around by news. The idea is to survive those periods, and then be well positioned for the next susta…