The bear market in Treasuries that started in August devolved into an outright crash last week. Meanwhile, evidence shows that cash in Primary Dealer accounts has exploded to the highest level in history, with the biggest weekly increase in history. There’s also circumstantial evidence that that cash came directly from US Treasury, away from the publicly visible means that we already saw last week.
We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.
Gold Mining Stocks Trader
The good news is that the 13 week cycle appears to have entered an up phase. And it did so before materially breaking the previous low. The bad news is that 9-12 month cycle indicators are showing no signs of strength early in this up phase. Here’s what it means, and a suggested trade.
Lee's Free Thinking
Primary Dealers were holding record levels of inventory with record levels of leverage since late Q3 2019. It was all hunky dory as long as bond prices were rising, or at least stable. The mirror of that is yields falling, or stable.
Ever since then I regularly warned about this in my Liquidity Trader reports. I said that it’s a two way street, and that when the inevitable decline in Treasury prices started, it would devolve into big margin calls to the dealers.
The US Treasury announced today that it would inject another $30 billion into the markets, in an attempt to forestall systemic meltdown.
S&P futures are mounting another comeback attempt this morning in Europe, aided by $55 billion in quasi QE from the US Treasury yesterday, with another $41 billion coming tomorrow and $25 billion next Wednesday. Just one problem –of many– the money ain’t going where the Treasury wants it to.
And that is a catastrophic problem for our financial stability.
The Treasury will inject still more cash into the market, on top of the $96 billion it already staged last week. It announced on Tuesday (Feb 23) that it will do a third round of T-bill paydowns, this for $25 billion, settling on March 3. This is on top of the $55 billion that is settling today, February 23, and…
News and Opinion
Our little trendline friend on LQD did a pitch-perfect job (green arrow).
Is that really what you want to spend your time doing, paying higher taxes?
The U.S., after all, is running unprecedented peacetime deficits, with a new $1.9 TN stimulus package scooting through Congress. This legislation will be followed by what is sure to be a major infrastructure program. There is literally colossal deficits and Treasury issuance as far as the eye can see.
The world of precious metals continues to be quite grim. Indeed, gold and its brethren have suffered tick-for-tick with the bond market. The chart is crystal-clear: a right triangle pattern that has been quite plainly broken, and is at risk of much…
I seriously cannot believe these GameStop fanboys.