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The rally has paused in the hourly 24 hour S and P futures. The five day cycle is in a flat down phase, in other words, a consolidation. Spport is indicated around 5960. If that holds, we can count on the run to the round number. 6000 here we come. If this little spport level breaks, there’s more where that came from around 5950. I don’t see the likelihood of that breaking. Although nothing is impossible. If that level does give way, it could waterfall. Major Inflection Point
The 10 year Treasury yield has pulled back sharply. Apparently traders see that light supply at mid month, along with plenty of new T-bill collateral for instamoney, so they’ve been buying the T’s. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit
Meanwhile, the Fed’s Strategic Deferred QE reserve has dwindled to the danger zone. The debt ceiling will return on Jan 2. If Trump says shut it down, the debt ceiling will stay in place, with enormous consequences for the market. First will be the T-bill paydowns- bullish. But if Trump says he wants to cut taxes immediately, they’ll have to suspend the ceiling again. Or maybe they’ll let that 800 billion Treasury cash hoard run down first. The direction of the markets will be determined by that charade. Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later
I’m wondering where the offsetting spending cuts will come from.
Gold is trying to get a foothold this morning from selling that started before derelection. We had plenty of warning. But how will it do from here? Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked
Cryptonians are rejoicing as BTC has broken out from a huge high base with a conventional measured move target of 90k.
The EUR/USD is trying to regain its footing after a failed intermediate cycle low. If it fails to do so and takes out 106.64, then crash on.
For moron the markets see:
- Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse November 5, 2024
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Treading Water November 5, 2024
- Major Inflection Point November 4, 2024
- Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked November 4, 2024
- Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later October 31, 2024
- Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit October 21, 2024
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