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Market Analysis: Navigating Current Trading Cycles

After a week of orgasmic buying, the stock market has just died, perhaps considering the deeper implications of what’s in store under the next US Government epoch. But we are not concerned with the big picture here, only the more mundane aspects of day to day trading, and timing entries and exits. On that score, a 5 day cycle projection of 5900 on the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures, is virtually done, and hourly cycle oscillators are on the cusp of edging to the buy side. Note, as always, that “on the cusp,” is not the same as “triggered.”

That’s particularly important when a market is trying to find footing at a low point. It’s from just such positions that one slip can result in falling down a stairwell or out a window for those who are critical of government policy. So, stay bullish my friends, unless your head be the one on the platter. 

We also note that on this chart, 5910, 5895 and 5870 are the critical spport levels. If one goes, the next one is up. But if 5870 goes, then abandon hope, all ye who enter here. Chances are we go back to where this latest wave of irrational exuberance began last week. 

17b84i

I have been forecasting light issuance but instead, we get T-bills for Turkey Day. I reiterate from my regular reports, the Treasury is swimming in cash. It doesn’t need this.  Here’s Why Lower Treasury Supply Ahead is Bullish or Super Bullish

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The sharp uptrend in the 10 year yield (bond price collapse) hasn’t been broken, and therefore continues to threaten contagion. If the 10 year pops 4.50, then the intermediate cycle projection would be immediately in view in the next day or two. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit

17b8jw

A 6 month cycle projection on the collapsing EUR/USD now points to 0.97. Ouch. 1.045 is major support. Breaking that would complete an even more enormous top that would have a conventional measured move target of around 0.965. On the other hand, daily cycle indicators are almost as extended as they were at the 2023 and 2022 bottoms. Gold Melts  

Gold has reached trend spport and is the most extended on daily cycle oscillators that it has been since the October 2023 low. That doesn’t mean that the crash is finished, however.  Gold Melts 

17b90h

In our final cryptic comment of the day, BTC is holding its own after hitting its conventional measured move target of 92k based on its base breakout. But now there’s an intermediate term cycle projection of, what else, 100k, of course. The soothsayers were right. 

17b95j

Originally posted at Capitalstool.

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