Yes, my friends, it’s that time of the month again, and I’m working on some reports to splain things. They’ll be posted in Liquidity Trader within the next few hours.
Here our focus is on the nitty gritty of day to day trading, particularly with reference to the broad market as represented by the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. Over the past couple of days, the patterns we saw foreshadowed the meltup we got, and yesterday, the market got very close to the latest 5 day cycle projection of 4225. But having given back nothing overnight, that projection now points to a range of 4345-4375.
In other words, regardless of the BLS BS, the market is going higher today. Whether the move is early in the day or later, I will leave to the market gods. If the first move is up, I’d hold it until it gets to the projection range. If the initial move is down, I’d buy it around trend support which is around 4298 at the time of the BLS post nocturnal emission.
Unless 4298 is decisively broken, which seems unlikely, but nothing is impossible. If that happens, we will discuss.
At least we had some buys lined up on Monday morning. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs
Oh shit. I forgot that the time difference is only 5 hours this week. 😂😂😂 We started standard time over here in Europe last weekend.
Based on our tracking of real time tax collections, I had warned repeatedly that BLS was overstating jobs growth for months. This month we got the adjustment. Top line 150k, which was below consensus, and indeed too low based on big October withholding tax gain, and two previous months revised down 110k.
The first report is always bullshit. And wait until Feb annual benchmark revision. It will be another enormous downward revision.
I will be posting an update on October Federal tax collections in a couple of hours. Stay tuned and keep your dial set right here.
The bond rally is now targeting 4.20, with a conventional measured move projection of 4.120 if this yield breakdown sticks. Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold In the Mix November 1, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs October 31, 2023
- Last Week I Warned of Market Crash Potential October 30, 2023
- Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger October 28, 2023
- Dealers Pull In Their Horns October 14, 2023
- Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
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