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Whenever there’s a big rally, it always feels that way, but let’s step back a minute and recall what happens when a market crosses an oft crossed trading range.
After ground has been trodden time and again, it becomes a well worn path, easy to traverse. Same in the market. The market has crossed at least part of yesterday’s range on 37 days since June. That means there’s not that much stock for sale as there was the first time it crossed. So when triggered the market gaps across most of the empty spread between offer prices, until it starts to hit that overhead supply. Then we get to find out just how strong the rally is. Not based on yesterday.
That said, there was plenty of technical warning that the market was primed to go higher. On October 31 I abruptly reversed what had been a bearish view of the technicals. Then on November 6, I warned again. On November 7, my swing trades list added more buys, and only buys. Then this Monday before the market open, I headlined again Meltup Gonna Take You Hiya . And likewise in the pre market- Loading Up on Buys.
So there was plenty of warning that something like yesterday was coming, and maybe more. But can we conclude that it means new highs directly ahead? I will leave that for the next set of cycle projections in the Technical Trader report to be posted in the coming weekend.
For our usual pre market look at the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures, the 5 day cycle projection now points only to 4525. However, there’s a trendline convergence at 4530 a couple of hours from now that is also a likely pivot point. And the 2-3 day cycle projection looks like 4545-50. Hourly oscillators are well overbought, but that doesn’t mean anything. The trend is your friend until at least a break of the new meltup channel line rising from 4515 as of 7 AM NY Time to around 4530 in the 10-11 AM hour.
As long as that line stays intact, gonna take you hiya!
Over in bondland, a cycle projection on the 10 year yield points to 4.25-4.30. The mid month coupon settlement today is very small. With selling pressure less than usual, and the bond cognoscenti having decided that repricing is in order, there’s no reason to expect immediate reversal of the bond rally. But Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away, so after this respite, be wary, things could get hairy.
Even the lowly yellow relic popped on yesterday’s low inflation news. Go figger.
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold Has Lost Its Mojo and Is Now in Danger November 14, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Loading Up on Buys November 13, 2023
- Meltup Gonna Take You Hiya November 13, 2023
- Gold Bullish Pullback But Miners Are Doubtful November 8, 2023
- Fuggedaboutit! Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away November 5, 2023
- Which to Believe, the BLS or Actual Tax Collections November 3, 2023
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