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Here’s Where Crypto Is Headed Today 6/10/21

Yesterday I wrote that BTC had the makings of a pretty good intermediate swing bottom.

All in all, this has the makings of a classic bottom. And there’s nothing more bullish than a head and shoulders top breakdown that doesn’t follow through. So there’s a chance that a really big rally could come from this setup.

From yesterday’s overnight low to this morning’s high BTC had a nice 5700 point pop, or about 18%. Using the Wall Street nonsense about a 20% move in anything marking a bull or bear market, cryptos have bull/bear cycles every couple of days.

This morning’s rally hasn’t even hit resistance. Here it is on the hourly. The first resistance levels are around 37,750 and 38,250. But with hourly oscillators on the downside, they needed to test trend support first. That was around 36,000 at 5 AM in NY. They didn’t even get to the line before BTC took off like a scalded rat.

I’d guess that there’s some churning to be done as the bulls attack that trendline above 38,000. I don’t think they get through on this try. The 5 day cycle projection is only 38,300.

Bitcoin ($BTC) Hourly Chart

Click to enlarge

For a better idea of the big picture, here’s the daily chart. We have trend resistance around 39,400, and a key resistance level around 40,000. Then there’s the flattening 200 day MA around 42,000. Cycle oscillators are bullish, suggesting that one or all of these levels will be tested over the next couple of weeks.

Bitcoin Price Projection

Click to enlarge

Now that the bloom is off the rose of so-called BTC transaction anonymity, the criminal use value of bitcoin and other cryptos is in the process of collapsing. I don’t see a recovery from this. Good riddance.

For the next few months, look for a 31,500-42,000 trading range. That will be of interest only to scalpers. For the skeptics like me it won’t get interesting until it breaks 31,000.

For you bulls, well, I wish you all the best. Good night and good luck.


Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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