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Posted in Lee's Free Thinking

Ugly Head 2/22/21

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And shoulders over 3 weeks. Completed, and busted. The thing measures to about 3805. The 5 day cycle projection points to 3855-70.

The right shoulder is slightly higher than the left. I can’t remember the last time one of these, with a right shoulder higher than the left, broke down and led to a big decline. Even 3800 would surprise me.

Here at 4 AM ET, they’ve coming off a support convergence. The hourly oscillators got Dover Sole, so I’m gonna say that was the cycle low, subject to a test with a positive divergence within the next 6 hours.

Click to engorge. tvc_7852d9b1e1a9196a31bc5e0e64389440.png


Quelle est la raison du jour for this morning’s selloff? The meltdown in the bond market is bringing collateral call pressure. The 10 year is now 1.37.

The media is partly correctly blaming the bond market. But they are wrongly blaming rising yields, when the proximate, direct cause, is falling prices> Yields are the mirror of that, for sure, but they miss the point. Falling prices are triggering margin calls, leading to more falling prices, leading to contagion, as dealers and leveraged longs sell whatever they can to raise cash.

This could spiral out of control.

Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

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