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Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance

Given the reaction of The Federal Reserve to the Covid-19 virus, it is understandable for investors to freak-out about possible Weimar Republic / Venezuela-like hyperinflation.

(Bloomberg) — Even a calamity of disease, death and economic destruction afflicting the world all at once isn’t enough to suppress the notion in some quarters that inflation could return with a vengeance.

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The coronavirus crisis has killed hundreds of thousands, incapacitated millions and affected the livelihoods of billions — prompting policy makers to fear a deflation spiral reminiscent of the Great Depression. But economists including former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart, and investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management, are asking if a different phenomenon lurks in the wreckage of global growth.

Muted Price Growth

IMF predictions for inflation rate at end of 2021

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Yes, inflation rates are muted in the short-run, but the surge in government spending and The Fed balance sheet is scaring some people about “inevitable” hyperinflation.

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And the surge in M2 Money Supply YoY is leading some to panic.

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But like the Titanic that sank after striking an iceberg in calm seas, there are calm seas on the inflation front. The EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y is less than 1%.

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The USD Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y rate is 1.7944%.

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But USD Swaption volatility remains calm after a jolt upwards in March.

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And the US Treasury Inflation Indexed curve is negative beyond 3 years.

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So, the data is showing calm inflation seas, but gut-wrenching Venezuelan-like inflation.

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