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Golden Slumbers Awaken

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Slope of Hope. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Generally speaking, everything but bonds and oil are up this morning. Gold has had another strong session, up about $32 as I’m typing this, and up nearly $200 during its recent uptrend.

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As good as this looks short-term, I would say again that gold seems prone to rolling over yet again, as it has been lurching in the confines of this nearly perfect oval for weeks. It it reaches escape velocity above this oval, yes, look out, the gold bull market could truly be here.

I had been bearish on bonds until Friday, when the risk of a breakout seemed strong, but that has flopped again. For weeks now, every bond /ZB approaches the level noted below, it retreats. The prospect of a breakout still remains, so I’m not especially enthusiastic about touching TLT in either direction.

In March, equities (shown below via the ES hour bar chart) were making a regular habit of “limit up” or “limit down” days (magenta areas tinted) but we haven’t seen those for a while. Ever since about March 25th, we have been imprisoned in the range I’ve tinted in green. This up/down/up/down market is a manifestation of, on the one hand, hope that we’re getting past the worst of this pandemic, and, on the other, fear that the bad news will keep tumbling in.

A longer-term view, this time of the NQ, shows has stocks remain hemmed in beneath an important resistance level. A break above this would be a very powerful buying motivator, perhaps back to the underbelly of the long-term trendline.

Whatever the moves are in the next couple of weeks, I suspect there will be a pall cast over the market once earnings season arrives. This season is always met with anticipation, but this time it’s going to take on a gravity that hasn’t been seen in over a decade.

Wall Street Examiner Disclosure: Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. No endorsement of such content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. All items published here are matters of information and opinion, and are neither intended as, nor should you construe it as, individual investment advice. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers, or considering any investment.

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