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What I am reading this week: a new paper via EFMA, titled “Governance and Government Debt” by João Imaginário and Maria João Guedes, available here: https://efmaefm.org/0EFMAMEETINGS/EFMA%20ANNUAL%20MEETINGS/2019-Azores/papers/EFMA2019_0184_fullpaper.pdf.
The paper looks at “the relationship between Worldwide Governance Indicators [a proxy for governance quality] and Government Debt in 164 countries for the period between 2002 and 2015.” Using fixed effects (FE) and generalized method of moments (GMM) models the authors show that “governance quality is negatively and statistically related with government debt. For Low Income countries was found evidence that better governance environment is associated with lower public debt levels.”
More specifically, “for a set of 164 countries on a period between 2002 and 2015, … estimation results for FE model suggest that Control of Corruption (CC) and Voice and Accountability (VA) indexes are negative and statistically significant on influencing government debt. In part, this result confirms our Hypothesis 1 that better governance quality is associated with lower levels of public debt.” But the study also shows that these ‘global’ effects are predominantly driven by the presence of low income countries in the full sample. The authors find that “the link between good governance quality and government debt reduction is more evident for Low Income countries.”
As a caveat, the authors do find that overall higher score in the World Governance Indicators Index (as opposed to specific sub scores) has a negative and statistically significant impact on the levels of government debt, so that overall higher measure of governance quality is associated with lower government debt for the High Income economies. The magnitude of this effect was reasonably large, as well.
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