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I noticed with interest this morning that the top three decliners in pre-hours trading were all retailers (women’s retailers, if I’m not mistaken):
April Tax Collections Still Running Red Hot Mean That Fed Must Get Tighter
The Fed is Tightening Into a Sheet Storm
This lines up nicely with what I’ve been saying here and on tastytrade for a while, which is that retail (shown below by way of fund XRT) is descending toward the lower portion of its trading range, and in my opinion has the risk (or, more accurately, opportunity) to break its horizontal support and push into a much deeper bear market.
One of the 60 short ideas I shared last weekend was PVH, shown below. These stocks don’t move very fast, but I think their long-term patterns and trends are clear, particularly since the vast majority of consumers still buy the myth of our current prosperity and haven’t shut their pocketbooks as tightly as I imagine they’re going to in the months and years ahead.
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