The FT is reporting a 20% rise in credit cards delinquencies across major U.S. banks in 2016, compared to 2017 (see here: https://www.ft.com/content/bafdd504-fd2c-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a). Which sounds bad. Although, of course, neither new nor completely up-to-date. That is because the NY Fed give us the same figures (for all U.S. households) through 3Q 2017.
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So here is the analysis of the Fed figures:
- Credit Card delinquencies rose to 6.33% of total balances in 3Q 2017, up from 5.15% a year ago and from 5.45% in 3Q 2015. So, in fact, instead of a 20% jump, y./y for 3Q figures, there was a drop in 2016 compared to 2015, but a big jump in 2017 on 2016.
- One can expect a more significant jump in 2-3Q 2018, as new credit issuance glut of 4Q 2017 works its way into defaults (see link here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/01/19118-tears-over-qe-us-household-debt.html).
- Besides this, as noted here http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/01/19118-tears-over-qe-us-household-debt.html, credit card debt is rising and rising fast, with overall debt levels now 4.8% ahead of 2005-2007 average.
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