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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast at … 4.2% (Will Fed Feel More Comfortable Raising Their Target Rate?)

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest – Online Course Notes for Financial Markets. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model puts Q1 GDP at 4.2%. 


The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 4.2 percent on January 29. The advance estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 26 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on the previous day.

I wonder if The Fed will feel positive about raising The Fed Funds Target rate this year? Particularly given the 473 basis point disparity between the current Fed rate and the Taylor Rule (Rudebusch Model)?



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