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Current Tax Data Shows US Suddenly on the Brink of Recession

Withholding tax collections plunged in the second half of November. This not only broke the year long uptrend in withholding, but has established a downtrend. After adjusting for wage inflation, the year to year comparison is barely positive. It means that the US is barely hanging above recession.

Here’s what that means for monetary policy and stock market impacts. It is not what you think.

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