Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number in real terms, although we cannot be sure how much because of the uncertainty of the wage inflation adjustment. The current rate is down from a nosebleed territory +11% a month before and from +2.9% three months ago.

The August slowing appears to be within the normal short term cycle of tax collections which typically runs 3-4 months. That cycle should bottom this month. A break below current levels would signal a probable recession.

Excise taxes declined 1.5% year over year in August. The -1.5% year to year decline compares with -4.5% in July. This continues a string of declines (or narrow gains) which have suggested that the economy entered recession this year.  Excise taxes are based on unit volume, not prices. Therefore they may be an accurate gauge of economic activity independent of any need to adjust for inflation.

The latest weekly data from the EIA on gasoline consumption, as of August 26 shows a 0.8% year to year gain in gas sales, which supports the conclusion that August was not a strong month for the US economy.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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