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About That Existing Home Sales Report .. EHS Actually Rose By 6% In August

This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.9% from a month earlier to an annual rate of 5.33 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.”

But that figure quoted by the National Association of Realtors (and repeated by the venerable Wall Street Journal) is based on SEASONALLY ADJUSTED sales.

Would you believe that existing home sales rose by 6% in August? See David Stockman’s analysis here.

ehssae

This is a closer view since the crash of home prices and the financial crisis.

ehssince2009

Note that seasonal factor. Existing home sales (using raw or non seasonally adjusted data) usually peaks in June of every year, or these is a dual-peak in June and August.

seas

“Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected home sales would reach a rate of 5.46 million in August.”

The actual print was 5.41 million using raw data. Using seasonally adjusted data, existing homes sales SAAR was only 5.33 million.

So, the August existing home sales report for August (NSA) was actually positive relative to the seasonally-adjusted figure.

Or as Maxwell Smart said, “Missed it by that much.”

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