Talk about a barrier option!
The balance between QE and Treasury supply will begin to shift in July. The underlying bid it has provided for stocks and Treasuries will begin to fade.
This report tells why, and what to look for in the data and the markets. GO TO THE POST
US consumer comfort still hasn’t broken the 50 barrier which was last achieved in November 2006.
The reason? Real median household income peaked in 1999-2000, hit a lower local peak in 2007 (about the same time as a bump-up in consumer confidence in 2006 — RMINC is for the entire year).
Based on this chart, I expect real median household income for 2016 (which won’t be reported until about October 2016) to increase somewhat.
Although Sentier Research does not report real median household income the same way the Feds do, you can see that as of June 2016, real median household income is still below 2000 levels.
That is enough to cause me to be less comfortable. No growth since 2000.
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