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Tax Data Shows US Economy Slowed In May

Real time withholding tax collections had a meager gain in May, increasing by just 3.3% in nominal terms. Adjusting for the reported wage inflation for April of +2.5%, the indication is that the US economy barely grew at all in May. That’s no different than the low end of the growth range of the past year or more.

While this suggests that economic data for May could come in weaker than expected, the jobs data should have beaten the consensus. The BLS headline seasonally adjusted number looks too low. This report explains why, and what to look for that would indicate recession.
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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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