Real time withholding tax collections had a meager gain in May, increasing by just 3.3% in nominal terms. Adjusting for the reported wage inflation for April of +2.5%, the indication is that the US economy barely grew at all in May. That’s no different than the low end of the growth range of the past year or more.
While this suggests that economic data for May could come in weaker than expected, the jobs data should have beaten the consensus. The BLS headline seasonally adjusted number looks too low. This report explains why, and what to look for that would indicate recession.
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