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Negative Trends In Tax Collections Persist

The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has been falling since October. It turned negative in inflation adjusted terms in late December and has grown increasingly negative since then. This is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. The question now becomes when weakening economic data will begin to trigger Fed talk about a return to QE. Until that happens, bad news will be bad news, as it continues to surprise the market and shake investor confidence in the Fed.
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